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Divining the Next Big Move

A couple of people including our sage reader in Luxembourg have pointed to a fairly new market indicator that's telling us 'thumbs down" about economic recovery prospects.  It's referred to as the 'first principal component of 44 indicators" and although it briefly popped to the upside, more recently it has taken on a decidedly bearish cast.

 

While a more thorough discussion of the indicator is here, it suggests that we're at a key inflection point for markets  - something discussed with Peoplenomics subscribers last weekend. 

 

Even if you don't subscribe, here's one of the tidbits from last week's report:  The release of the Wizard of Oz came just about 10-years after the 1929 market peak...and here we are, just about smack-dab at the 10-year mark after the Year 2000 market peak and what comes out?  Alive in Wonderland.

 

Not that history replays or repeats precisely, but it does rhyme often enough that a serious student of the market might be asking "Gee, where are things in the great blender of time?"
 

The parallels to the 1930's Depression ("D1" around here) are not precisely the same as here in Depression 2.0 ("D2"). but a lot of that has to do with the schizophrenic way this economy has 'come undone' compared with the previous experience.

 

As I've told you before, on topics like the banking crisis, in the D1 event, the results of bank failures were both personal and immediate.  Here in D2, the effects have been pushed out over time (e.g. moderated) by FDIC and what was an immediate implosion (more or less) in D1 is a Grand Slow-Motion Collapse in D2.

 

If you look at my "Aggregate Index" (bottom of the UrbanSurvival daily page) you'll see that the market is within inches of either breakingf furiously to the upside - which would happen with a hundred or so more Dow points, or failing that, collapse into a heap if we drop down a few hundred.  It's really quite graceful how this all works out, but the closer we get to the one-year anniversary of "bottom pickers" calling the 2009 bottom, the more my sense is that things will end badly.

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Seems like everyone's got a way to play the 'big move' when it comes.  You'll know it's here when you wake up one morning and and I'm screaming about the futures being down hundreds of points and how it's time to get to the lifeboats.  But, we're not there - at least this morning (yet).

 

The Wall Street Cheat Sheet's interview with commodities legend Jim Rogers is an interesting contrarian piece, if you've thought about going long the Euro.  My tastes are a bit more on the practical side.  The way I figure it, all the "money" (paper) and even gold & silver may not be as important as a block of .22 ammo or MRE's & a tent in our future.  Such things are "money" only so long as the key infrastructure that everyone seems to take for granted are in place.

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A Tyler Durden report over at ZeroHedge notes that SPY volume is back to 2010 lows as equity mutual funds run out of cash" so we may not have long to wait for the downside resolution of matters.

 

With all this in mind, it's little surprise to see a headline this morning like "Stock futures fall on 1-year anniversary of Low."  Some things are just far too predictable...
 

Papieren Bitte? Department

The "National Terror Alert" site has an article about how a new "Worker ID card at center of Immigration Plan."  Vee vill haff ORDER! 

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Lest you think the rush to chip humans (one way or the other) is overdone, note that in the UK (which you remember recently revealed they are chipping garbage cans) now has a plan to chip 'dangerous dogs'.

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I've got a couple of working theories on this stuff:  One is that there are no dangerous dogs, only dangerous owners.  The second is that if no-fly lists and chipping immigrants was such a fine plan, how come lawmakers ,don't make themselves subject to the kind of "just-us" they seem so eager to dish out (heap is maybe a better word) on the rest of us?

 

I know, I know, I'm just to egalitarian to understand what being "on top' means, in the world of power, payoffs, and politics.

 

Summer of Hell

Remember the linguistics about this time a year ago about the 'summer of hell'?  Looking to me more and more like we may have been a year early on that call.  The good news was we didn't really get it last year, but the bad news is that when predictive linguistics show something more than a year ahead of time, it's generally as bad as the linguistics - or worse.

 

So, it's with a certain sense of trepidation that I noticed Jane's (of Defence publications) is talking about "Greece bracers for a hot summer of discontent."

 

Looks like the 'revolution' meme will be spreading globally since so many people are still blind to the real up/down (or have/have-not) paradigm, and still buy into the flagrantly absurd notion of right/left political freedom, strictly controlled by the two major parties that eat 99% of what's at the corporate trough.

 

Everyone's a Terrorist?

A recent Paul Joseph Watson article "Pentagon Shooting: Now Everyone's a terrorist"...subhead: Birther, truther, drug war critic, tea partier, libertarian, liberal – any and all dissent is “violent extremism" is a must read.

 

One upon a time, America used to honor dissent.  Now, we moving to jail it.

 

Am I kidding?  Read the "Enemy Belligerent, Interrogation, Detention, and Prosecution Act of 2010" and get back to me.  The key concept is if you're considered an 'enemy belligerent' you no longer have rights.  Which I guess takes them out of 'rights' and puts them into privileges" doesn't it?

 

Whoa Joe Department

While US Veep Joe "Biden sees 'moment of opportunity for Mid-East peace" I find myself reaching for the ViseGrips again to pinch myself:  With Israel planning more building in the West Bank, what's he thinking?

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You can buy a good assortment of ViseGrips from Amazon for about $70.  See: Vice-Grip 5-Pc. Welding Tool Set  I find them especially useful on mornings like this when about every other story has me pinching myself.

 

No offense to the "Don't Crush That Dwarf, Hand Me the Pliers" contingent.

But that does set up our next headline...

 

Back to Nukes

North Korea is back on the nuclear development path stating that the latest US-South Korean exercises are threatening.  So much for six party talks...

 

More Quakes Ahead

A reader wants to know:

"Hey George,

How come you have not been talking about all the oddities with the sun recently?? There is another filament which may cause a Hyder flare if it collapses and there are strange radio waves going across the sun as well?

I am FAR from any type of expert on this but from what I am reading these things are very rare!!! Maybe you could comment on this?

Not much to say:  You have the link to www.spaceweather.com and I assume you know the Chilean quake followed a Hyder filament collapse by a few days...and I assume you have seen the USGS site?  And you know a Chilean city moved 10-feet in the last one?

 

Linguistically, we're not even halfway through the quake damage/headlines/fears due over the balance of the year...so all things in time and I'm in no hurry for 4-5 more Great Quakes, thanks. 

 

Don't wanna be repetitious...just not worried about another Great Quake for another week or so...that should give the filaments time to collapse and flares to pop out...even that's no timing guarantee, however.

 

Harsh On Pot

If you ever come to Texas for a visit, might want to read up on drug laws around these parts.  Here's a recent story about a fellow up in Tyler getting handed a 35-year jail term for having 4.6 ounces of  weed plus a scale.  Because of priors and being within a "drug-free" zone, this fellow age 54 seems destined to spend the rest of his life in jail for the offending 4.6 ounces. 

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I figure at what?  $20-grand a year to feed and house an inmate times 35 years, Texas just spent $700,000 for this 4.6 ounces.  But then, jailing people is a big industry in these parts.  Ummm...pencils to $2.4 million a pound, I think...

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"We just hope [Texas Department of Criminal Justice] can free up room for this menace to society; maybe the state can release a child molester or serial arsonist to find a cell for Wooten," the Houston Press scoffed in a Friday blog post.

 

Harsh on Beer

Unfortunately, Texas wisdom on how to spend resources isn't an isolated case.  Take the one going on up in Philadelphia where "Troopers raid popular bars for unlicensed beers."  Oh, sure, the vitamin B-laden brews were all bought proper-like from state warehouses.  What's missing is some of the brewskis hadn't paid a $75 dollar licensing fee to the state.

 

Say, am I the only one who smells that bad stuff that comes out of the back-ends of male cattle?

 

Colorado Versus Amazon Associates

Speaking of government behavior, Amazon has pulled the plug on its Associates in Colorado because the state is trying to get web entrepreneurs to collect sales tax.

 

Colorado is trying to strong-arm online compliance ignoring that Amazon is ultimately the beneficial entity and the sales is not done with the Associates - they just get what amounts to a referral fee. 

 

So yeah, you can still order Amazon goods in Colorado with no sales tax, it's just the geniuses in state government have decided to tax the little guys who were bird-dogging for them - out of existence in a way no other state has done.

 

I can hardly wait for Colorado to start imposing a sales tax on all other small business entrepreneurs who get commissions.  A prime example of how to turn a recession into a depression - just watch this kind of non-thinking propagate among the economically challenged. 

 

Governments have a way of solving every problem but the right one.  Tax foreign provided services sold within the state!  OMG do I have to explain everything?

 

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Coping: New Reading Materials

A couple of new ebooks in the wings, which I'm pleased to share with you.  One of these is a new ebook (57 pages) from Dick ("Texas Book of the Dead") Browning that takes a look at how a family in the Dallas area might find life should the modern infrastructure taken so for-granted fail.  Interesting ideas to consider, since at some point in a collapse scenario, people would likely flee big cities and head for the hills.  And what would the folks in the hills do?

 Download "Yikes"  for $10.00  

 

 

The second ebook is longer (244 pages) and is called "The Deep Sleep" by Tim Erickson.  The cover for this one is also tempting:

 

 

This one is also in the $10 range ($9.99 is close, eh?) and the download page is here.

 

And, as long as we're on the topic of surviving 'worst case' (and how we got here)

 

James Wesley Rawles's' (survivalblog.com) "How to Survive the End of the World as We Know It: Tactics, Techniques, and Technologies for Uncertain Times" is more of a workbook with lots of contingency planning ideas.

 

 Taken as a whole, these three books are a pretty good intro to the "prepper mindset"..  Browning's book is a fictionalized "how it might be experienced" level, Erickson's is an extremely well documented (with new clips) summary of how the national hypnosis works, and Rawles' book is a practical "How do we plan for it?" sequence.

 

By the way, Rawles's' site has a dandy article on it this morning about "the Looter Mentality" - something which has always fascinated me.  Every time there's a major flood, earthquake, or other 'disturbance in the social balance' people start stealing which is a sad commentary on just how thin the veil of civilization really is.

 

A practical question to be asked (not a happy question, at that) is "If 9-11 emergency service stop working, how are you going to behave, how are others going to behave, and will their behavior terminate or shorten your lifespan?

 

UrbanSurvival's place in all this has been oriented toward the economic, and in particular the way there's a cycle to how all this goes, and until there gets to be some genuine light at the end of the tunnel, we'll keep adding to our library of information, skill building, and sharing what we can about the value of (as the Boy Scouts  motto puts it) "being prepared".

 

Also Worth a Read

Tony Ring (not running earthquake data at the moment) has a fine post on his site under the title "Illumination on Illuminism" you might find interesting.

"Spent about six hours of my life listening to the DVD lectures sold by Nassim Haramein. I got interested because he is a published, peer reviewed, bonafide brilliant physicist. I think the brightest I have heard speak in my lifetime. It is really ironic that I bought the series and listened to it because I was looking for a happy distraction from the daily gloom and doom all around the net. Boy, did I get a surprise. The first three hours delivered wonderful, amazing new views of physics and the universe just as I expected. Then the last three hours tied that physics straight into the Mason/Illuminati cabal and what it all means to the future of the planet. It’s like I can’t achieve escape velocity from this issue no matter where I turn! Gaaaak!

(more)

 

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Send your comments to george@ure.net

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Shop Till You Drop Department:

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"Live on $10,000" A Year

Having a hard time making ends meet?  (Like who isn't, right?)  A good starting point to better match up income with outgo is our $10 e-book "How to Live on #10,000 a Year...or less!"

 

 

 

It's an automatic download.  It's written in an information dense style: The whole thing runs about 65 pages, but it gives you a vision of how to not only live on the cheap, but also how to migrate up the economic foodchain if you have a little hustle left.  A bonus section called "How to Build Anything" should instill confidence if you've never taken on a home improvement/home creation project before, too.....  Click here for the index and details.

 

MyGroPonics

My commodity broker JB Slear and I have written a simple book to get you started on high density hydroponics.  It's an example of how someone with a little creativity, access to a few 'dollar stores' and willing to try out some new farming techniques can grow an amazing amount of produce sin a very small space - like even an apartment balcony (if it gets some sunlight).  Sound interesting?  It's just $10 bucks here...

 

       

 

Pass It On

A different take on things - that's what you'll find here most mornings.  If you know of anyone who might also like our content, simply click here and send a link to them.  Or, if you hated what you read, send the link to all your 'worst enemies'.  Like they say in Burbank, "Ain't no such thing as bad press..."

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 Last week's report is here.    For back issues of this site, click here.

 

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Monday March 8, 2010

Crunch Week for Markets

I mentioned to Peoplenomics subscribers that the rest of this month could be really critical for the markets since so many people were 'buying at the bottom" a year ago when the market was 4,000 points lower than it is now.  Under IRS rules, long term gains come after "more than a year" which most traders take to be a year plus one day, or two, depending on how good your legal budget is and the odds of being caught.

 

The real pile-on didn't happen (as inferred by volume in March of 2009) until around the 18th & 19th, but as trading opens this morning, there's a big question about which way the market will pop.  Robin Landry's latest to his colleagues 'in the business' lays out the problem this way:

"Hi Everyone,

The market action since the top in the Dow on Jan 19th has certainly been anything but easy to analyze. On a 90 minute chart you get a clear 5 waves down but the rally off the Feb 5th low is approaching the limits for a Minor wave 2 rally. Unless the market turns down decisively in the next couple days then I believe the wave count is that we are in the 3rd zigzag off the Marc 09 low and headed to new highs between 10780-11241 to complete P2. For those more technically inclined the count off the March 09 low is as follows. The first zigzag W topped on 6/11/09, the decline to the low on 7/08/09 was an X wave. The long rally to the 1/19/10 high was the second zigzag labeled Y. The decline to the recent low on 2/5/10 is another X wave and we are now going up in the final zigzag Z to new rally highs over the next few months. The most likely time frame for the top is the April-May area. To say we are at a major inflection point, and the next couple days are important is an understatement. Remember the evidence IMHO still says we are in a bear market rally with a major decline to follow once this rally ends. The market action over the past few weeks is indicative of topping action on declining volume. As I have said many times over the years I have been writing this market update, Technical Analysis is like having a 2 watt bulb (Nightlight) when everyone else is completely in the dark. It gives one a little better insight, but sometimes the patterns are still more difficult to read. This has been one of those times. The good news is when the market turns down and the count clears up it should stay that way for some time. As always questions and comments are welcome. I will answer as time allows.  rlandry@allegiance.tv

Not too much in the way of numbers this week...wholesale inventories Wednesday and the balance of trade on Thursday, but nothing to get too excited about...maybe retail sales Friday?  Whatever pulls your chain...

 

Friday's Consumer Debt report still showed revolving debt is decreasing although at a slower rate, so any recovery in the economy may be elusive for months to come.  Futures up. But only a tad.

 

Another Killer Quake

Just as the world was settling down from the quakes in Haiti, Chile, and the 7.0 in the southern Japanese islands recently, along comes a 5.9 shaker in Turkey which has killed at least 41 so far.

 

More Building

Think the Middle East will see any progress in peace talks?  Not likely since Israel has approved more construction in the contested West bank area.

 

Battle For Pakistan

What I label the battle for Pakistan may be starting as a suicide bomber has killed 11 people in Lahore.  Yeah, Afghanistan is real estate, as is Iraq with its oil (and elections this weekend) but Pakistan has something even more dear to terrorists - nukes.

 

A US citizen purported to be an al Qaeda spokesman has reportedly been arrested, but officials are being tight-lipped about details for obvious reasons.  Significance: More Pakistan-centered action.

 

And just as he was about to head for Kabul, Iran's president is reported touting that country's first cruise missile...and then canceled the trip.  On the other hand, Iranian media says US SecDef Gates is in Afghanistan visiting.

 

Best Laid Plans

US efforts to move a base in Okinawa have been turned down by Japan.

 

Down Under

floodwaters in much of eastern Australia this weekend.  Amazing video of it here.

 

About to Be Toast Department

Say, I know you may think global warming has been a somewhat overdone deal, but here's a report that should make the hairs stand up a bit: "Methane frozen beneath Arctic seabed destabilising, scientists warn".  Yep, that could be a biggie...

 

Another Clinton Fan

Notice how Venezuela's Hugo Chavez is calling Hillary a "blond Condoleezza"?  Tisk, tisk and even more so because...

 

Today Is...

International Woman's Day.

 

I'm sure somehow it must be my fault.

 

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Coping:  The Chemtrail Argument

First email to greet me this morning dealt with the idea of PROBE - the Private Responsible Organization Bringing Effect - which I discussed last week.

"I just read your public article, and I will quote you:

“1.  Chemistry & Physics:  Given that the content of chemtrails is fairly well documented.  Some of the chemicals involved have been noted by Wikipedia as:

"Various versions of the chemtrail conspiracy theory have circulated through internet websites and radio programs.[1] In some of the accounts, the chemicals are described as barium and aluminum salts, polymer fibers, thorium, or silicon carbide.[6] In other accounts it is alleged the skies are being seeded with electrical conductive materials as part of a massive electromagnetic superweapons program based around the High Frequency Active Auroral Research Program (HAARP).[17] "

 George, I guess you did NOT read the Wikipedia article because the WHOLE of its contents have eluded you.  Hundreds of thousands of scientists and military members and anyone with half an education in high school physics ALL agree that chemtrails are paranoid nonsense.  And there is NO documentation or agreement from ANY scientists that support the assertion that chemtrails consist of thorium or fibers or whatever.    None Zero Nada ZIP Zilch…       the only “proofs” you have are the rantings of uneducated conspiracy theorists or fakirs claiming to be legit!   You have NOTHING that corroborates anything about chemtrails outside of 2^nd or 3^rd hand here-say  (rantings).    Period. 

 

They are contrails, not chemtrails.  But – well, I suppose I am just part of the HUGE and VAST CONSPIRACY THAT SOMEHOW WANTS TO HURT OUR FELLOW NEIGHBORS, CHILDEN, and SPOUSES…    honest to God, you are such a dolt when it comes to this nonsense.    Or should I say, a first class sucker.   

 

Like tens of thousands of military members are purposefully engaged in the logistics and operations of spraying bad things onto their own families…     you should be ashamed.  

 

And just like with Global Warming… which you took hook line and sinker when that was big with conspiracists…  that, and chemtrails, do not exist.  But, I guess w/my scientific and military background is just part of the BIG VAST EXPANSIVE ILLOGICAL EVIL CONSPIRACY TOO.      And I suppose I’m just trying to DISCREDIT YOU with I write to you with these criticisms.  Pleeeze….

 

George… you do a great job with economic news and ideas… stick to it.  When you venture into stupid ignorances, you discredit yourself.

Let's back up here and start from the top. I assume you'll agree that  injection of substances into the atmosphere has been done for decades in the form of cloud seeding to cause precipitation, right?  Why is further injection for other things (HAARP efficiency maybe?) so hard to conceive of?

 

I assume you've read the famous Eastlund patent on weather modification using a HAARP-like system?  Or, the patents that relate to generation of an Artificial Ionospheric Mirror which can be tilted for aiming purposes, but heating the atmosphere?  Say, you are aware of the patent covering a "process for absorbing ultraviolet radiation in the atmosphere by dispersing melanin, its analogs, or derivatives into the atmosphere..."?  And these are the patents that are out in the open.  Wanna bet on some being issued, but not public for national security reasons?  Probably close to HAARP is this patent on ground global tomography.  Conveniently works in the 2-15 MHz range...

 

Is the US Government at least STUDYING aerosols aloft?  Absolutely, unequivocally YES.  There's been so much leaked on the net that the government has an entire website on topic under the heading "Atmospheric Science Program" (ASP) which it is claimed is trying to assess climate impacts of manmade aerosols aloft...

"The current focus of the program is aerosol radiative forcing of climate: aerosol formation and evolution and aerosol properties that affect direct and indirect influences on climate and climate change. "

Does the site admit to any spraying?  Not that I have found - yet.  On the other hand, a predecessor program, the government had plans from the Tropospheric Aerosol Program Plan (2001) to inject what's called an "inert tracer" into plumes of urban areas and power plants!

"Development of a quantitative understanding of aerosol formation in urban and power plant plumes will be greatly enhanced by the addition of two additional elements, concurrent release of an inert tracer, and synchronized (to the in-situ aircraft) overflights by an aircraft with the ability to remotely sense the vertical distribution of aerosols. Release of tracers concurrent with the experiment allows a much more quantitative assessment of the rates of transformation processes to be developed, as losses of substances from the plume, and dilution can be accounted for by ratioing concentrations to the concentration of the inert tracer. The technology for releasing tracers from such point sources and for measuring them from aircraft platforms is well developed and available for use in TAP. (Koffi et al., 1998)

And what is the 'inert tracer" we wonder?  And the release mechanism for urban plumes?  Not specified.

 

Is it a stretch that a nonpublic extension of this program could involve spraying (to study dispersal rates under various conditions)?  Well, that's just a tiny step to take from what's already a full-blown study of aerosols and so to me it comes down to the question "How much do you trust your government?"

 

We know from the literature that governments have in the past conducted massive experiments on civilian populations with (among other things) chemical weapons without bothering to tell anyone about it.  No chance to opt out and no reason to think that has changed.  The whole idea of 'secret' tests means 'no public accountability' at its core.

 

A specific example:  The UK's

"...Ministry of Defence turned large parts of the country into a giant laboratory to conduct a series of secret germ warfare tests on the public. A government report just released provides for the first time a comprehensive official history of Britain's biological weapons trials between 1940 and 1979.

Many of these tests involved releasing potentially dangerous chemicals and micro-organisms over vast swaths of the population without the public being told. "

Right there, in black and white in a mainstream British paper. And 2002 BTW.

 

Now, like it or not, I don't find it a stretch to think that the US either did (or may be doing) something similar...but as luck would have it, there are enough people of the "Ain't true if it isn't on XYZ media..." that similar programs are not out of the question.

 

Mind you, I do not claim chemtrails are 'real', however, governments have shown repeatedly that they don't value the lives of all citizens equally.  And lest you think it's 'out of the question', I'd offer as my centerpiece of US government abuse the 1930's Tuskegee experiments where syphilis was deliberated given to black men without their knowledge and then untreated to see how the disease would develop.  In the name of 'science'.

 

This little horror of history was covered up from about 1932 until 1972 before it finally 'leaked' to the mainstream.  And then there were the servicemen who were deliberately exposed to atomic tests and the list goes on....

 

So, given the number of patents on weather modification, RF propagation, and other suggestive developments like the aerosols measurement projects, no, I don't think chemtrails are completely 'out of the question' at all.  Could they be partly an artifact of reformulation of jet fuel to make it safer (anti-wicking)? Nope...seems more to it than that.

 

But since I've done a little reading and research on the topic, if the government were to announce that "Yeah, we've done spraying to test this or that..."  (especially if connected with something like global warming or improving the aim of HAARP or some yet-to-be-disclosed project) would I be surprised?

 

Not in the slightest. 

 

Read what I wrote carefully: "the chemtrail conspiracy theory" and "In some of the accounts...".  Stop projecting...like many other topics, I'm in the research mode on this with no predisposition to outcome of the research - which is the only way honest result are ever obtained.  Take the IPCC, please.

 

If, in your judgment this constitutes stupid ignorances on my part, I guess, so be it.  Could be that's a two way street. 

 

I try to strive for an open mind, but not so open that my brain falls out. 

 

UFO's?

Video out of China looks more like a big kite than a UFO to me, but go have a look yourself.

 

Monday Management Notes

Don't know if you've seen how Google is continuing to press Microsoft's Office franchise with something called DocVerse.  A plug-in that lets Office work with docs. ppt's, xls's, etc 'in the cloud'...

 

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