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Published Monday - Friday about 8 AM Central Time Except Holidays....many major typos are fixed by 8:30 daily
Saturday June
20, 2009
07:08 A CDT
This site is supported by subscription to Peoplenomics. For additional content, please subscribe. Content mirrored at my other site: www.independencejournal.com,
Waiting For the Market Break Since this is Saturday morning - and I don't do Saturday updates (save the energy for the Peoplenomics report, which this week will focus on how governments keep control of their subject/citizens/'consumers') I'll briefly point out that the market - as expected - went through a complete yawner yesterday at options expiration. It got so boring that I turned my computer off about 10 AM Eastern and just worked on projects around the ranch. Most days I check 3-20 times during the session but yesterday? Ha!
Next week on the other hand, and actually through mid-July, will likely be another story because we have some potentially market moving events on the horizon.
Frankly, combined this is all side show stuff. The real movers next week are likely to involve fund managers trying to take profits off the table before the end of Q2 in order to hit bonus levels. And, along with that, trying to get ready for whatever is next in the market.
Getting on the right side of the next move will be important if you have any money left from the meltdown in the Dow which once upon a time in October of 2007 was over 14,000. Not trying to run salt in the wounds, but just saying that we have three major paths open to us.
The first is that the country goes into a period of additional deflation. A search of news headlines for the word 'deflation' bring up tidbits like "Bank of Japan: Must keep close watch on deflation" and "Gold gains limited by deflation, dollar: Prechter."
But on the other side, Dr. Marc Faber of the Gloom, Boom, & Doom Report says Hyperinflation could hit US in 5-10- years. And already, around the edges you can see troubling indicators. For example, Austin Peay State University in Clarkesville, Tennessee is looking at a tuition increase of 6-9%. That's be double the official cost of living numbers here lately.
You saw Nouriel Roubini's outlook? No recovery till at least end of the year and then a weak and vulnerable state.
Balancing off the reports is difficult, time consuming, and just plain frustrating. However, since my personal investment goals are a) party on and b) preserve whatever little purchasing power I have, my three-pronged approach is really simple:
In the ultimate worst case either on the inflation side (and where I've been nibbling at long-term silver call options here lately as a hedge) or on the deflation side when treasuries would be the winning bet to maintain purchasing power, I still would be able to eat; something pretty far up there on my agenda.
This is definitely not a 'get rich quick' kind of environment, so I'm not going to waste any of my time or yours suggesting otherwise. --- So while I sit back and wait for the titanic forces of finance to sort out the present mess (and linguistically head toward hyperinflation late this year and into 2010), the real problem is where to move money when a break toward inflation or deflation happens.
The problem, to take the hyperinflationary course, is what do you buy if you see hyperinflation coming? Already gold deliveries are slow and even though I've got a stone and acid for testing quality of coins (along with a micrometer, etc...) buying gold when it's taking off seems problematic.
The alternative I'm considering is purchase of additional ag land that adjoins our property, but the longer term problem there has to do with taxes and that local governments are likely to be finding federal bucks harder to come by (since the federal government has money issues itself) and that means the local folks will come after the landowners.
Seems like there's just no 'easy win' out there, other than to look for a country where you pay the taxes just once when you buy property and then that's it. Simple transfer taxes at sale time work fine in places like the Cayman Islands, but they have the good sense to have Cayman Island dollars that give them a 20% spread over the US dollar.
Effectively, they tax imports this way, something we should be doing in my view, but the wage-rate-differential corpsters would squeal like pigs (for reasons that are porcinely obvious). Then they'd run up the false banner of 'free markets' which means, best I can tell, that it's OK for them to pay a worker in some backwater third world sweat shop 50¢ an hour so they can take the labor rate differential ' betwix thar and here' and buy a new Lexus every year and live in The Hamptons, or whatever.
A break to the deflationary side is also problematic, but less so, since the government will have plenty of paper to sell thanks to the bailout of the banksters.
No, I don't have any grand illusions about changing the world, but with the limited way I can 'vote with my wallet', seems that investing in staples of life (land, food, education, etc) will have at least as good a payback as treasuries or precious metals in the very short term.
Could it be the best possible investment these days is a treadmill? Oh the ponderings. Thankfully it's the weekend and we can all sit back and ask "WTF is going on here?"
Three More Banks Fail One thing is banks are still failing:
I've given up counting
Terra Changes Good BBC video on how "Glacier melt chances Italian border..."
Right Kinda 'Tude Attitude is everything & readers are sometimes geniuses. Take for example the email that came in under the subject line "Write When You Get Rich..."
I loved it. Why they couldn't have just said something simple like "Under 18 MPG combined OR has more than 100,000 miles on it and you deserve better..." is just beyond me. But then the "You deserve better could be applied to a lot of things, now, couldn't it?
Around the Ranch: Field Day Preps Off to a ham radio breakfast this morning - so part of the reason for a short column. Don't forget last Saturday in June is ham radio field day - when a bunch of radio nuts go off into the hinterlands, suffer through mosquitoes and warm beer and try to make as many radio contacts with any many other stations as we can while running on generators, solar, wind, and whatever else we can cobble up in the way of power.
Pound on a Morse code key, or moving pictures around the world without the internet may seem like a dumb hobby, but no more so than 'drowning worms'. Besides, we get to use soldering irons and scopes, LOL.
See you bright and early Monday morning... --- Send comments to george@ure.net --- For Your Money's Worth: Obama's Reconstruction Problem
This may sound a little odd - to be talking about the reconstruction
plans of the Obama Administration, since there hasn't been a big
enough disturbance to the economy to require any 'reconstructing'
yet. But, since I have a few clues as to what will be in the
next predictive linguistics update, and because the second leg down
in the derivatives disaster will likely be pulling into view before
September, I figure it's as good a time as any to consider how
America's future could work out. In the process, I'm guided to
some extent by
After Collapse: The Regeneration of Complex Societies More For Subscribers Subscription Information MyGroPonics My commodity broker JB Slear has nailed a great solution for people who living in apartments and condos who want to become at least partially self-reliant when it comes to raising food: An ultra-high efficiency micro-hydroponics system using readily available local parts. 25-pages and plenty of pictures to turn you into a farmer no matter where you live (Great if you have back problems, too...)...or if you just want to fill up the back yard with MyGroPonics trees and feed the neighborhood... $10 bucks here...
Maxa-Cookie Manager Maxa-Tools has provided us with a free demo - which you're welcome to try - of their dandy cookie manager tool that I use here on all my computers. It shows both the browser-specific and the newer browser-independent cookies. Quite happy with it.
Here's the download link for the free demo:
www.urbansurvival.com/setupMCMstdGU.exe
Once you try it out, click the upgrade button (!) on the upper right hand side for the $35 unlock to get it to remove even those pesky 'non-browser specific' cookies. Bonus: You computer may run faster. I took over 1,000 cookies off my son's machine that he swore was clean. It ran much faster.
Shameless Self Promotion UrbanSurvival just keeps getting more popular - thanks to your help. (Oh, sure, sometimes because we tell you the news before it happens and because my economic analysis has been better than 99% of the PowersThatBe who obviously don't get it; but let's not go into chest-pounding mode...) So don't stop now. Tell all your friends to wander on by for an uncommon mixture of relevant & real economics, humor such as it is, preparedness, all served up with the occasional side order of ...well, weird. Click here for a tool that may help. (It'll pop up an email window if youi use Outlook (or a few other email programs) then simply send a link to everyone on your distro list...
"Live on $10,000" Updated What? You haven't ordered the ebook "How to Live on $10,000 a year -- or less"? Suit yourself. We're all going to live it shortly, anyway. I just thought you might like a heads up by reading about how to do it before you get pink-slipped. But, suit yourself OR visit www.liveontenthousand.com or, click one of the following button:
Yep - still possible. I also took a bit of additional material that was pertinent from recent issues of Peoplenomics and included them. The whole thing runs about 65 pages, but it gives you a vision of how to not only live on the aforementioned dollar amount, but also how to migrate up the economic foodchain if you make a little more than that and do some active savings... Click here for the page with more details on it. ---- Last week's report is here. For back issues of this site, click here. (Goes back to 1997!)
Friday June 19, 2009 Witches, Bonds, & Poets "Double, double, toil and trouble, fire, burn, and cauldron bubble..."
Got your options calendar handy? This could be a pretty boring triple witching options expiration day. Why? Well, for on thing it's not until next week that the Treasury is planning to auction off $104-billion in bonds. That's the 800-pound gorilla. Higher bond yields drive stocks down and I wouldn't be surprised to see the yields coming up next week.
Depending on what you think they'll go for, that could push the market around a bit. So far though, calm in Europe where the FTSE was up a bit. Futures here in the US are up, too.
Last options expiration (May 15th) the Dow closed at 8,268.64. Yesterday it closed at 8,555.60 - so up about 3.4% in a month.
Which gets me around to the interesting question: How much of this gain has been related to actually improved sales prospects for the underlying companies that make up the indices, and how much can be laid at the feet of inflation? I don't expect an answer right now, just something to think about.
The Thursday release of the Leading Economic Indicators by The Conference Board certainly supports the notion that things are turning upward, however slowly:
I'll be keeping a sharp eye on the LEI reports over the next couple of months. Encouraging now? You bet! But, if the linguistics are right, over the course of July to late August, the derivatives mess will come back into focus, as if it does - and if that sets up a major decline into the Fall, then the LEI may be painting little more than a head-fake.
"Aye of Newt, bond of ink, wool of sheep and corpgov think..." "The market heads to powerful trouble, like a hell-broth with derivatives bubbles."
But for now, "It's all good" till maybe mid August.
Rocket's Red Glare Department Oh, this is just dandy: "Japan warns that North Korea may file missile at U.S. on Independence Day." But, of course, they'll miss. How come? Even if they get 4,000 mile range out of their Taepodong 2 that still leaves them about 1,200 miles short of Hawaii.
Don't want to state the obvious here, but if you know of another piece of waterfront close to their labs where the NK's could fire off something out 4,000 miles where it would have a lesser chance of landing on anything, I'm sure they'd love to hear from you.
The US is tracking a suspicious ship from North Korea, meantime. Two bets going around: One is that this is a down range tracking ship. Other bet is that it's a launch platform and our navy's likely to hail and query it as to what it's doing out there in the mid Pacific.
Meantime, I'm hearing that some non-essential folks are quietly moving off Okinawa...nothing 'fishul yet, but talk among readers out that'a way.
Conan's Barbarian? UK headline this morning: "Star Trek actor William Shatner turns into nightmare guest on U.S. chatshow as he makes series of rude hand gestures..." Damn. Sorry I missed it! Well, I didn't since it's on YouTube already...do the UK headlines overplay the part? Judge for yourself.
More Torture Interesting read over at the IndyBay website about how "U.S.-Trained and Funded Philippine Military Implicated in Abduction, Torture of American."
Since the US has set such a fine example of state torture, seems to be catching on. Dandy, huh? Gotta love that moral high ground we're on...'specially since the fact is that someone being tortured will say damn near anything to make the torture stop. But, of course, corpgov doesn't want you figuring that one out...national security, don'tcha know. Hey, what are you doing with that wash cloth?
Iran's Election No massive election fraud here, says Iran's supreme leader. Tweet me up a flash mob, wouldja?
Papering Over Hard sell is on for the idea that those $134-billion in bonds are fakes. Darn...made such a fine story, too. Reader note:
Nope. Reason they pushed M-3 under the table is so that thoughtful people (like the kind that hang around here) won't be able to watch how the papering over of the Second Depression is going. It doesn't seem to have occurred to monetary geniuses that folks like John Williams (Shadow Stats) and posted at Trader Bart's site here, show that M-3 is going up at a tad over 16% annually, which with 4% inflation visible, means deflation of 11% annualized is going on and that sucks.
But no, we don't notice those things...but thanks fer askin'
--- snip and save section ---
Coping: Street Level Economics Every so often I get some grand emails from folks out and about who have a great person-to-person look at the world which is often vastly different that what comes over corpgov teevee. Take this one from Iraq, just for instance:
Ah, some fine economic and political content to gnaw through here. First off, you're absolutely right about the Columbine generation now defending the country. A goodly number have figured out that the reason the Obama administration is still signing war spending measures (and the latest one is in process of being rubber-stamped) is that there's no way that any of the powers that be want a well-trained - let alone fearless group of Constitution defenders showing up. Why, that's about the worst nightmare that could come along.
The answer, is, as Orwell put it so well thirty-odd years back, is 'permanent war for permanent peace..." Except'in of course, there ain't no peace because no profit in that.
If you think the world is facing a pandemic of swine flu this fall (we are) and that when the second leg down of Depression Two begins, that will be the most serious threat to the nation ever, then think again.
I'd offer that the most serious threat to America is that people are starting to think and no matter how many wars, how much fluoride in the water, no many how many people Big Pharma can get addicted toi pain pills, no matter how many former soldiers will be put on 'can't own a gun list' because of 'combat stress', and no matter that within a year the free expression on the internet wi9ll disappear as a last-gasp attempt by the current ruling paradigm to buy self-preservation by tearing up the rights of free speech, there will still be a few folks who will 'get it'. --- Still, your idea of invading the Caribbean makes total sense. I, for one, will volunteer to do a little wall diving off Grand Turk...and say, is the Kittina still there? And what ever happened to 'the Colonel' who used to hang there?
Yes, I can see the need to take Dunn's River Falls in Jamaica, too. And SunSplash in Montego Bay? Why, all them rasterboys gotta be sharin' de ganj mon. Could perhaps the Benedictines learn a bit about religious agriculture from 'em, I wonder?
I'm afraid, however, that this idea to liberation of the rum & ganj islands is unlikely. More in line with current thinking, we're still paying for liberating The Hamptons and other haunts of the rich & blingfull. Until we start printing up bailout vouchers for places like Telluride, Vail, and Jackson Hole up in veep Dick country, plate's kinda full. Oh, and we still gotta get at Iran's oil, too...speaking of which...
Oh, since you're in 'Raq, don't forget to say "Hi" to the local alphabet agency folks for us. I'm admiring their fine orchestration of tweets and texts to whip up the opposition in Iran. Helluvit is, though, that what they're learning there about flash mobbing is exactly why the Internet/texting/and SMS may not have a long future here in the once Home of the Free.
Freedom's a fine thing, and all. But where's the profit in that?
Cash For Clunkers Good article on the cash-for-clunkers bill that's coming down the pike. I only have two problems with it.
1. It rewards people who were NOT sensitive to the environment since the threshold is you'll only get the credit if your combined MPG is 18 MPG or less. And...
2. Our old Daewoo Leganza which I'm about to put a replacement radiator in after that wolf/coyote took out the old one on the highway last week has a combined 21 MPG rating. George is screwed for doing the right thing, again.
Is this like the whole new way of the world? Do right, get screwed?
Well, I see where there's a different rule for pickups, and my 2001 Dodge Ram would qualify so maybe a new farm truck is the sheep trail to be chosen. Maybe I'll just keep patching up the 'Woo... Got anything without electronic engine management?
Thursday June 18, 2009 Memories of Monopoly As I was contemplating my navel Wednesday, along with the fine print of the 'financial reform' proposals from the Obama administration, which seem to boil down to more government - and in particular more power for the Fed - I was struck by something: Why not bust up the Fed? Or at least bust up the problematic banks and paper-slinging outfits?
We already have a prototype for monopoly busting in America - in the break-up of AT&T - a move which arguably was a pretty good one, if you can remember at the back to 1974.
The country's present financial condition is indeed precarious, and as our predictive linguistics pals reassure us, they're about to get a whole order of magnitude worse when commercial real estate and Derivatives Crisis II show up in a month or three, so what's the structural solution to what ails us?
When I read about the trillions of dollars worth of bailouts, TARP'ing and so on, I keep coming back to the fundamental design pattern at the root of where we are: The whole notion of too big to fail. --- The engineering concept is well known and well documented: It's under "single point of failure". Look up SPOF and you'll find all kinds of good science on mean time between failures and so on.
You want the answer to the nation's financial crisis - both now and going forward? It's right there in Wikipedia...but too many of the so-called 'economists' who believe in Keynesian horse pooty and that inflation is somehow acceptable (e.g. trashing purchasing power to pay those who demand interest/rent on money) have never studied outside of their own inbred boxes. So here's the lesson...ready?
Next time you hear about a company that is "too big to fail" - remember, there is an alternative to printing up a whole bushel basket of money and laying the debt involved off on our kids and grand kids: Simple bust up the "too big" operation into a series of smaller ones that are NOT too big to fail. And then stand back and let the market forces work things out as they will. Failure is both episodic and necessary...it's the humus on the forest floor of economics. Has everyone forgotten that?
Seemed to work for the regional Bell operating companies after the AT&T break-up, no?
It's like Harold Geneen - once CEO of ITT - said: "The only unforgivable sin in business is to run out of cash." We have a whole country right there, right now.
Absent a little new thinking (which is laughably absent) where we're going is horrifically clear...although the train coming down that track will be another month or three before it runs us over. That gives you just time to read "Hyperinflation: The story of 9 Failed Currencies".
What both the Fed and the White House seem to miss is that no matter how much Tarp & Talk goes on TV, where the rubber meets the road, credit card companies are still in the tightening mode, as this NY Times article points out.
You saw the latest May traffic stats out of the Port of Los Angeles? Imports down 18%.
Gee, here's a startling thought: No money, no room on the credit cards means no import demand. Radical, huh? When future history is written look for something that says "One of the dumbest moves was to cut credit card limits at exactly the moment people needed additional purchasing power to propel the country out of recession and to hang onto their homes."
We either break up banker cartels, or we write off America via hyperinflation. It's this latter course that's now baked in the cake seemingly. --- Why we're not applying established monopoly-busting as was applied to AT&T to these financial outfits that have America by the financial nuts is plain crazy. Here lately I'm becoming convinced that crazy, with a strong minor in denial psychology and complete ignorance of design patterns and interdisciplinary studies, is a mandatory prerequisite to holding office or being a mainstream sell-out economist.
The "Ultimate Conspiracy Theory" OK, so a reader sends in a reminder of the WSJ Online headline recently: "Treasury Has $134.5 Billion Left in TARP." Date on story: March 30th of this year. And then those two Japanese fellows were busted with how much? $134-billion in bonds.
Naturally, UrbanSurvival readers are wondering "Was this our own government sneaking money outside the country in order to have some ready cash for when our economy implodes later this year?"
Tisk, tisk. Perish such thoughts. We're reassured that the bonds are fakes. But then again, what would youi expect the official word on this to be? "Oh, we're just diversifying TARP dough into FOREX"? Quick, hand me the Reynolds Wrap...something must be getting through my tinfoil this morning.
Greased I see where oil is back over $71 a barrel as the oil cartel sheiks a few more bucks out of the American consumer.
Price at the pump is up 50-days running now, notes CNN Money. And a pipeline has been blown up by militants in Nigeria. Ever wonder if options players send money to militants? More tinfoil, please.
RV's In Decline See where Winnebago just posted a loss? I'm thinking about a used RV - could use it for a guest house, bug out vehicle (if a short wheelbase) and darned, they are cheap on Craigslist here lately..
Plagued The WHO is sending an expert to Libya to see if that's really the Black Death - bubonic plague - that has popped up. It's just a handful of cases, but thanks to modern jet travel, a handful could turn to pandemic in no time, as any student of Mary Mallon's history will know.
"Mary who?" you're thinking. Typhoid Mary....is it that early? --- Brazil finds a new strain of H1N1 virus. How do you say "Bend over and roll up your sleeve"?
Lakes on Mars Hold the press! A University of Colorado teams finds definitive evidence for ancient lake on Mars. Understand land is cheap there... --- But seriously: We have to stop this space exploration stuff immediately since it would be absolutely nuts to export our system of "owning" the land to other worlds, unless, of course, under it all NASA is planning to make back all our billions by selling off real estate of other worlds? Hmmm...
Happy in the Hinterlands A press release from the Census Bureau reveals some interesting trends if'n you're thinking about settling down somewhere:
That was before the housing bubble got pricked, of course.
--- snip and save section ---
Coping: With Cougars Neighbor up the hill came by last night and try as I might, we never did quite get around to having our "What to do about the cougar" talk. Did get quite a range of opinions sent in by readers, though.
As you'd expect, there were some who took the "Nice kitty kitty..." approach. Be sure and count your fingers after that. A couple bemoaned that in Canada, pistols are pretty much verboten unless you're a woodsman or trapper and the paperwork to even own a handgun is monstrous.
A few sent in this link to a current cougar problem up in British Columbia. My other neighbor (across the road) has a new "solution". Have you seen the new revolver that shoots either a .45 long cartridge or a .410 shotgun shell? Holy smokes! Long cylinder on that beast...and spendy too: $500+ range at retail, MSRP around six and a half. Shells about the size of your little finger... --- Cougar and kit are safe for now... Reader ideas coming in:
Good point...wonder how fast the neighbor up the hill can run? Half my age equals twice as fast? Wonder how that math works. And there's this:
Damn Smart Readers Department Uh huh. Here's a note...
Specs on the VX-7r and VX-8r - just for example include A3E...but fine catch there. Since these radios have general coverage receivers (cell blocked, but you know about mods, right?) how come no product detector and BFO for SSB? Throw in a CW filter while you're at it and make a plug & play matching HF transmitter of the 5-watt class... Can't be more than a dime or two worth of parts...
Speaking of Electronics We weren't, but keep up here: There was a dandy review of a new gotta-have-it-toy in the latest issue of the ham radio publication QST of an ultrasonic receiver. This is an inexpensive kit that for about $70-bucks (and some time behind a soldering iron, a sure cure for work pressure any time) will give you something that can pick up the noises of bats and what have you. Quite cool.\\
Source: http://www.midnightscience.com/ultra-kits.html
In Defense of Hawaii A reader who grew up in paradise, says it's not at all unreasonable about Hawaii wanting to make even pocket knives illegal:
Well, sorry, but the answer to a meth problem is NOT taking right away from people. It's about legalizing plants that the booze lobby is so dead-set against and getting the meth-heads into treatment. Too simple? Pardon moi....
Crime is one of the biggest businesses in America. Why, without all those police cars, where would Detroit be? Without all those lawyers, who would attend law school?
Listen to me: If we want to solve the economic problems of America, what we need is more crime and for sure a broader definition of terrorism. Let's get to building more prisons so we can all take turns locking each other up! Yeah, that's it....fine spin on the shopkeeper economy, don't you think?
Missing Time Department Friend of mine in L.A. reports that she had some 'missing time' yesterday. She'd set her watch by her cell phone time...and happened to wear it to bed.
Now the interesting facts are that she a) woke up with a bloody nose - first bloody nose she has had in 40-years and b) her watch - one of those fancy ones that shows two time zones, which had been set perfectly the day before, had a 55-minute difference. Eastern time was right on, but Kalifornia time was 55-minutes off.
Conclusion: Aliens who are abducting people aren't smart enough to change two times on a watch, LOL. So whatever their agenda is, they ain't all that smart. Come to think of it, judging by the people we elect, neither are we. But, that's neither here, nor there.
Just a weird 55-minute difference between watch settings and a bloody nose. Draw your own conclusions, but it's an interesting report from a trusted source that preoccupies my monkey mind this morning. Maybe they just don't 'get it' with time zones or two time zone watches aren't in their operating manual yet. Ponder, ponder, pass the tinfoil again? Wednesday June 17, 2009 CPI, CP Owe And yippee kai yi yay, git along little sheeple. Wallet-BOHICA Wednesday is here!
Hmmm...transport component was down 14.3% compared with a year ago. Guess what? Energy was down 27.3% unadjusted from a year ago.
Financial Messiahs Arrive - Again No yawning - save it for 12:30 PM as about then, you'll want to have some popcorn handy and be grandly entertained as the Obama administration rolls out "Financial Regulation Reform." Reform? Gasp! Kack!.....Let's compare the Obama reform plan and something I call "Plan G" [as in George] reform and you tell me what makes the most sense:
Well, a little harsh, but it's another day of Obama TV. No way does Plan G have a chance, and Plan O is nothing more than tip-toeing around the hard issues which aren't going to raise campaign money for the democons or republicorps.
Ah, but we still have the best government money can buy, though.
Wonder if Big O will explain what that $134-billion of bonds was doing in Italy? No? Gee...look surprised.
Exclusive! Credit Report Scores Revealed! Our resident cartoonista is brandishing more economic truth than you may be comfortable with...so fine - here's the latest from www.toon-republic.com's Rebecca Price:
Paranoia Strikes Deep... ...into your heart it will creep." Lyrics from the Buffalo Springfield song "For What It's Worth"
If you're wondering why the song is coming to mind, you must not have seen the mass public programming effort underway in Melbourne Australia where "Melburnians urged to have Go Bags ready in case of evacuation..."
Why, I haven't heard of grab & go bag since I was living on my sailboat, where a grab & go kit is standard fare offshore. The idea is that if your boat sinks from under you, you'll have a VHF handheld radio (modified to work on all VHF frequencies, including the aircraft 121.5 MHz emergency frequency, a gallon of water, survival gear including a solar still and fishing gear, a deck of cards and so forth...)
But a grab and go kit in Melbourne? --- It could be that the city fathers (and mothers) of Melbourne have been reading cheery reports like "World's megacities ripe for 'megadisaster'. --- At some point, I rather expect a series of mega disasters. Why? The crooks who orchestrate things behind the scenes in the financial markets will need something BIG to cover their crimes and put the public off their scent.
What they don't want leaking out is the notion that printing up paper with nothing more than ink and a promise doesn't work very well as a long-term store of value. Which is why a steak dinner in the days before the Federal Reserve cost $1 dollar. today, it's 20-times that which means the purchasing power of money has been watered down twenty-times-over since 1913. Well, more actually, but it's all hidden in plain sight behind the big lie "Prices Go Up!"
Truth is that "Money is being watered down." Irwin Allen couldn't cook up a bigger disaster movie. titles like "The Poseidon Derivative", or "Towering Bankferno" rush to mind.
Guerrillas in Greece Urban violence now playing in Greece.
Mickey Mouse's Laptop? Disney goes for the kids laptop market with a $350 netbook.
MySpace Cuts 400 going, going....
Now This Makes Sense "Qatar PM: Details on Porsche deal within three weeks". Why wouldn't Middle East interests want a piece of a car company that puts out fine rides like my 930 that takes 12 quarts of oil come change time?
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Coping: Facing the Future If you are a subscriber to our www.peoplenomics.com website, you got the heads up in an email yesterday afternoon that the latest ALTA report is out from Cliff at www.halfpasthuman.com. $10-bucks and 30+ pages of how the rest of this year to into 2010 plays out linguistically. --- A couple of subscribers asked why my email ended with the word "Sorry..."
Do I need to explain? I think once you read the report, which has a pretty grim outlook in it, the word 'sorry...' will become clear. The only danger in seeing the future is getting it right and if that's the case, 'sorry...' is a very apt word choice. Kind of like hearing about losing a loved one and passing on condolences; that's how the next year or two works out. sorry...
Oh, it's not all bad - which is where the 'new electrics' comes in (see next section) and if you're among the humans who make it to 2013-2014, then life oughta be pretty good (comparatively to what we're going through between now and then...). But between now and then? Uh....go read the report.
That 'Million Dollar Idea' Where to pick up the adventures of the new magnetics study group? You know, the one I'm setting up over at www.magnetics.independencejournal.com?
Several people have sent in ideas and some really cool concepts which I will be wading through today (See "Catch-Up Wednesday" section following this). In addition, lots of people have expressed an interest in being 'readers' or 'reviewers' of material.
What seems to be the problem is the matter of finding the right software platform because there doesn't seem to be much of anything out there that would be a simple plug & play for the kind of applications where essentially, everyday smart people (which there are plenty of in the world) could perform a valuable service by helping experts broaden out their knowledge so that more interdisciplinary breakthroughs could be made.
Just to give you an example; I was talking to a colleague who runs a large national medical association on Tuesday afternoon and he got really excited about the idea. His words were to the effect that "many of our docs just don't have time to read and consider everything that's out there because there is just so darned much to cover."
We kicked it around for a while and this association (sorry no hints) would be very interested in such software too because as the knowledge floating around the world increases, the whole problem of knowledge saturation pops up as an obstacle to future breakthroughs at some level.
Just to make the point - and I'll paraphrase this to protect identities here, my colleague told me...
And so that's the problem in a nutshell. In just about every major branch of science I can think of, there's a lack of 50-150 word concept summaries of all of humankind's research.
Sure, if you know what the Biefeld-Brown effect is in physics, you can find it in Wikipedia, alright. But what's missing is the 150 word (or less) summary that would say something like:
Same thing is a problem in medicine. Anyway, the search for the right software platform to mobilize free human brain cells into an actionable army of knowledge expanders is where my researches are at the moment.
Doctor Search If you're a doctor (MD, perhaps have some medical director or monoclonal antibody research in your background) and even know what a 'receptor activator of nuclear factor-κB ligand (RANKL)' is, and you're looking for a well compensated job in research, my better half Elaine is working on a search for just such a person. Send you're CV to texelaine@earthlink.net. Good opportunity and about the only drawback I can see if that it's in a SoCal location. Still, homes are a lot cheaper there than they used to be and the company has housing assistance among the many bennies.
Around The Ranch: Catch-Up Wednesday Had a reader ask yesterday "How is it you get so much done? Do you really do all this, or do you have a cast of 1,000 helpers out there somewhere?" Well, the answer is no, I don't get much much done at all, and what little I do get done, I owe mainly to lots of computer horsepower, use of dual monitors and current everything software-wise, and even then I get backed up so that at least one day a week is devoted to catching up with the other six days. Today is 'catch-up Wednesday'.
Today's docket, for example, calls for me to finish writing at the usual time (8:10 AM) then fire up my well-drilling rig and run until 11:30. During that time, depending on how much rock I encounter I should have my well/hole in the ground down to about 60-65-feet.
Got a call scheduled at noon, and then from 1 PM until about 4:30 it will be catching up - sending people lost logon's to Peoplenomics, answering a zillion and one emails that have backed up, paying the monthly .bills, getting the trash around the shop all bagged up for garbage day, vacuuming in the office, and, and, and... Then this evening, neighbor's coming over for a branch-water and to discuss our local 'kitty problem."
A couple of morning's back, a couple down on what passes for the 'main road' into our part of the outback - a single-track oiled sand affair wide enough for only one car - spotted what looked like a full-grown cougar while he was out having his morning coffee on the deck about 6:30 or so.
A day later, my neighbor across the road called to report a couple of kitty-prints in the soft dirt leading into his driveway from the mailbox. The kitty-prints being about as big as a man's fist.
Then yesterday, the same neighbor's daughter reported seeing what looked like a cub - only about 12-15 inches to the shoulders which slinked off onto my property down by the creek. Lest you think that we're not being attentive to have failed to see the 'kitty', remember from my front gate down to the corner is 1,400 feet and to walk the perimeter of our property is a bit over a mile worth of hiking. And rugged as the dickens.
So the neighbor coming over for the branch water will be discussing the kitty problem. We've both got exception night eyes; me Gen 2.5 NV and he's got both NV and a thermal imager. Just because we're in the outback doesn't translate to 'backwards.' Between now and then, he's going to have a chat with the local game warden and see what she recommends.
Not that we're in any hurry to blast away at the kitty. On the other hand, the neighbors down at the corner (we share about 1,300 feet of fence line) they've got grand kids that often play in the woods and go down to the creek. And, they have a pet goose that's been missing a week or two.
Cougars have been known to attack people, and we've got serious concerns about the cat (or two) being present here. Just this week, a British Columbia youngster age 3 was mauled by a cougar. They also go after dogs and often kill them. Not to mention what a big cougar and a kit could do to our local deer population and the roughly 50-goats between our neighbor's herd and ours.
Folks across the road have lost one chicken (early daylight hours) and while the wild cat is not known to have anything to do with it, it's certainly on the suspect list. --- People who live in the 'big city' sometimes don't appreciate what it's like to live out on the edge of the wilds, but when folks like me go out at night packing enough fire-power to give Yosemite Sam a run for his money, it's not that we're anti-social, paranoid, or a gun nut. A full-grown cougar showing off its hunting skills in a little OJT session for its kitten, is not the kind of thing anyone walks into empty-handed.
Even with all the high tech, the stealth of a good bow-hunter, and watching the wind, the odds of seeing, let alone getting the kitty are low. But if nothing's done, the odds of something more serious happening - missing livestock, or worse, kids, go up over time.
We'll see about trapping and such, but in the meantime, out here a gun is a tool, just like a set of socket wrenches. Except, of course, we aren't being leaned on to register our socket wrenches. Yet. But'cha know, them sockets can be used to make a car that will go faster than the speed limit and therefore shouldn't we....oh let's not go there. --- OK, we're going there anyway: I thank the stars above that I don't live in Hawaii where an effort is being made to make even folding pocket knives illegal. As of this morning, the bill is still out in committee. Hopefully, it will die there quietly, but given the 'save us from ourselves/Nanny-State mindset', don't place bets.
Wonder if Hawaii will ban coconuts, too. Why, when I was living in the tropics down in the Cayman Islands, I saw people actually get injured and occasionally even knocked out by falling coconuts now and then. We oughta cut 'em all down, or at least laser-etch their trunks! Yessir.
Out here in East Texas we have a local phrase to describe someone who doesn't carry proper outdoor gear including at least one good working knife besides night vision or an imager, a long arm and a side arm when there are wild hogs, cottonmouths, copperheads, rattlers, coral snakes, and now a cougar out & about:
We call 'em damn fools. Laser etch that.
Tuesday June 16, 2009 Super Tuesday Numbers Hmmm...let's start with the PPI - Producer Price Index to the unwashed: Rally Rabid on this one which is way better than expected:
Table A, huh? Still looking deflationary with finished goods down at an annual rate of 5% while intermediates were about flat when annualized (+0.3%) and crude goods were up only 3.6% annualized. But what about fudging the numbers with seasonal scribbles?
From where I sit, it still looks like my resource allocation model (farmland/TIPS/Tbills and precious metals) still makes more sense than betting on the Dow. But then again, a Ouja Board and a six-pack makes more sense than the Dow, too, lately.
What will start to slam the PPI next month will be rising energy prices. This is May data, so keep your shirt on and a nitro pill at the ready.
Meantime, the Housing numbers were WAY higher than expected with housing construction up 17.2% for the month.
The industrial production and capacity utilization numbers should be out about 9:15 Eastern and will be on the www.federalreserve.gov web site...soi set a reminder to hit those, too. Modest uptick possible.
The PPI numbers and the housing starts mean that the CPI due out tomorrow may be somewhat tame, so if you were betting on the short side into triple witching this week, I wouldn't be planning any big dinners out for a while. At least not if you were going to pay for them with trading profits. Who told you 'rally' is on? Maybe through July? You wanna play short? Wait till August or so and then look 6-months out, unless you like 'catching falling knives' and big mortgages.
Iran as the Global "Florida" You were asking about the 'summer of hell" were you? How's Iran looking for a kick-off? Calls for recounts, millions in the street, shots fired and demonstrators killed. Yep, that'd be how things start.
Attacking the Dollar What's this? Russia's president "Medvedev calls for new reserve currencies" - which I take to mean that Russia has unloaded a big chunk of their dollar denominated assets, as I explained yesterday, they wouldn't dis until they were out from under. Well, that was sure quick, wasn't it? Why it's been years since I've seen such a passionate one-day love affair, LOL. --- Gee, you don't suppose that this is why gold is up and oil, too? Doh....
Stimulus Questions Now just see what republicorp Tom Coburn of Oklahoma is questioning? $300 street signs, money for Montana's state booze peddlers, under highway crossings for turtles? --- Why just in the past two weeks, I've almost hit wondering armadillos who seem unconcerned with a madman coming at them at 80 MPH on a single-lane East Texas backcountry road in a pick-em-up truck. Why, if brother Coburn would just lay off for a while, maybe Anderson Country Texas could get some of that easy money and put in snake and 'dillos crossings which we so sorely need.
And what about the Coyote and Wolf overpasses? I've got the replacement grill and radiator coming for the old Daewoo which hit a wandering beast last week when Elaine was coming back from a Dallas shopping adventure. Why, again, we need wildlife overpasses! No reason Alaska should have Mooserpasses on the Alaska Pipeline, when we have more wildlife turning to road kill here in the Republic than Alaska could ever dream of?
All Hail! New Jersey. Remember the linguistics about odd weather abounding this 'summer'?
Erosion Problem Family times disappears with just a few clicks.
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Coping: A Call for "Distributed Research - Magnetics, Levitation * New Electrics" Either tomorrow, or maybe Thursday, but most likely tomorrow, the new $10-version of the ALTA (Asymmetric Language Translation Analysis) will be issued by Cliff over at www.halfpasthuman.com . And it makes for an interesting read and will give those who are not familiar with the ground-breaking research based on linguistic shift over time (sampled via spiders that we have off reading everything publicly accessible on the net) a taste of what's to come this fall and into next year. In particular attention, there's this area of magnetics and new electrics that has me enthralled.
"Fine so be enthralled, George."
Go you one better: We've cooked up a new research project and you're welcome to participate - think of it as a 'future jack' or 'helping the future come along' since it hints in this particular direction anyway.
It's an implementation of something which I think may be a whole new way of harnessing human potential to move forward in a never-before-done manner: We're going to try an experiment in something we're calling "widely distributed public research." ---- A little background here: Both Cliff and I often get terribly overwhelmed with how complex our research gets. For example, Cliff is presently knee deep in translating scientific documents covering linguistics (and lots of other fields) from their native Russian into English. The scope of that work is almost overwhelming.
My own interest lays in the direction of something that we 'know' - at least it's hinted at in the predictive linguistics for the next 6-months to year period - where various breakthroughs seem possible-if not LIKELY - in the fields of "new magnetics" and "new electrics."
Now, in order for there to be a breakthrough, the 'design pattern of such usually includes at leasttwo components:
Remember how many conceptual pieces Edison test fit?
Which gets us to the core problem of a new researcher into the field of 'new magnetics' or 'new electrics' - who's got time to do all the research?
Just as an example, Cliff suggested that I hire my son's excess time when he's not doing medical studies - and put him to work watching everything on YouTube that has the term "magnetic" or "magnetism" in the video's subject line. The idea was that he'd watch a video, distill the core concept down to 50-words and lay it on the old man's inbox so it could be fitted with various magnetics experiments I'm doing.
(I'm working on propagation of magnetically offset radio frequency at the moment, so anything that goes to the idea of offsetting E & M fields is of interest...)
The problem is what? As of this morning there are 61,200 returns on YouTube alone with the word 'magnetic' in the topic. Plus another 70,400 videos with the word 'magnetism' in the title. That's hold on to your eyeballs: 131,700 videos to watch...
If we assume they only average 5-minutes in length (although many may be long talks/lectures, then in order to read/research all of YouTube, someone would have to watch just under 11-thousand hours of video. Working 40-hour weeks, that would be 274,375 weeks, or based on a 50-week work year, five a a half years of video watching - and that assumes that no one adds to the video resources between now and then.
Which is nuts! Because inventions and inventors march on.
Worse: The YouTube indexing system doesn't 'core concept' their stuff (not their job, OK?) and it doesn't get into extensibility of concepts...which is where I want to play....
So (going back to one of my favorite books on the Russian
science of invention, TRIZ) And Suddenly the Inventor Appeared: TRIZ, the Theory of Inventive Problem Solving
The general answer is to take the spare time thousands of people have every day and turn it into a massive research project. So I set the input framewor on my IndependenceJournal.com web server because I have oodles of server space & bandwidth there since it's main purpose is to provide redundancy to the www.urbansurvival.com site and to give people who are in government (and stick-up-their-you-know-what corporate) offices that censor everything but news and research sites, a way to get to UrbanSurvival's daily content at work.
Soo... head on over and take a look at (drum roll please): The more I've been tinkering with the concept (public research clearinghouse) the more I like the idea. A couple of reasons: First, a lot of academics self-filter and because of peer pressure/group think, they don't get into ideas that obviously have some historical basis. Just seems to be beyond their reviewed/group-limited framework.
Example: You may not be aware of it, but there are reports that in parts of Tibet (as well as other ancient cultures) a semi-circle of drums and horns (at specific frequencies) was used to levitate huge stones. Well, I've got some dandy function generators and can buy speakers all day long, so you find the cite and let's go levitate some heavy objects using sound- and if there's anything to it, my digital scale and a half dozen channels of audio at high sound density levels ought to be able to at least record something anomalous, get it?
The one curious thing - at least it strikes me as curious - is that I haven't been able to find the right software to do this public invention & discovery mission. Oh, sure, there are forum software packages, and blogs, and wikis and even curriculum development tools.
But here's the concept: Where is the public knowledge building add-on to something like Wikis? Moodle is fine if you already have a subject area and existing knowledge to package, but it doesn't seem 'research friendly' as in take the following 6-concepts, combine them this way and get back to us...kinda thing. Great stuff for teaching the 'what is already known' - but what about the case where we have so much material that we can't get down to the 'what is known" as a collection of 50-word recipe cards that can then be mixed up in that text case and that, so we can get into the serious business of public discovery? --- Remember a couple of years back, there was an effort by SETI, I think it was, where the idea was to use a special screen-saver to harness unused computer time and leverage that?
Well, what's interesting is that the human-scale analog to that seems not to have appeared yet.
In truth, this is the kind of "Big Picture Concept" stuff that may have been more appropriate for one of my subscriber reports, but since it depends on massive public participation, even I have to step out of the box every so often and say "Aha! This is for everyone..."
If we want to really solve our energy problems and move along as a world (less pollution and so forth) then obviously those little magnets which keep pressing out and which keep generating electricity when a wire is moved through their fields, is a good place to start.
But again, not by 100,000 people reading a book or a single video, but by a group of people reading 10,000 books, and 70,000 videos and summarizing them into their most concentrated form!
By distilling as much knowledge as we can down into flip cards so that we can figure out first what all the puzzle pieces are, then as we get all the puzzle pieces together, then test fit the most promising and actually do some future-jacking here.
And this is not to take anything away from the excellent sites that are already doing work in the field - such as Tom Bearden's fine site, www.cheniere.org. I just want to capture the mass of unused brain cells that go surfing on useless website, or which get hooked into spending money on useless baubles off eBay when there's much work to do.
There are all kinds of massive public research projects that need to be done: Optimizing agriculture, optimizing energy, construction, and so forth. But while these topics get touched on by Yahoo Groups and other such outlets, the really useful knowledge tools that collect recipes/concepts and then propose new combinations and summary results of different concept mixes is apparently yet to be invented as a cross between a curriculum development tool, discussion group/forum, a wiki, and a simple database.
Whether this actually goes anywhere beyond an interesting conceptual bit over a cup of coffee with 'George the nutter' seems to have at least some momentary promise, at least that's what's in the linguistics which will be coming out tomorrow or Thursday.
But as a bottom line here's how I see it:
According to the rickety time machine, this may be something that's about to get legs. And besides, what's the point of a time machine if we can't beat the crowd now and then, anyway? --- And sometimes, I just get the concept either wrong - or just ahead of it's time. I trust you remember my Public Design Library concept? The concept of that one is still, in my estimate, a million dollar idea waiting to happen.... Oh well... Maybe now, the timing will be better...
I'll let you know if I get responses...
Monday June 15, 2009 We are Not Alone - Or Are We? As a reader of UrbanSurvival (and maybe as a subscriber to our premium service Peoplenomics.com) you already know that my skepticism about both the depth and duration of what was first baled a 'recession' has been horribly underestimated by convention economists who have yet to come to terms with two hugely important economic realities.
The first of these is a 70-85 year economic cycle, which has features (starting from the Country's founding) of a Civil War, a Great Depression, and now...whatever it is that we slide into between now and 2013. Cycles are real, and hordes of group-think economists of the lock-step variety won't change that reality, any more than wishing the tide wouldn't come in has a snowball's chance in hell of working, either.
The other point missed widely is that the whole world's economy is interdependent such that what used to be local or sub-regional economic impacts are now as contagious as the pandemic flu.
Having these two concepts firmly in mind, I'm just a little disappointed to read that veep Joe " Biden tells "Meet the Press" that "everyone guessed wrong" on the impact of the stimulus, economy was worse off than anyone thought."
With all due respect, Mr. Vice President, I have to take exception to your use of the words "anyone thought" since my colleague Cliff and I were on uncountable radio shows telling whoever will listen that the events of October 2008 would be a sort of modern analog to the 1932 bond market disaster, and for the past six months, or so, we've been on whatever forums would have us telling folks "Yah ain't seen nothing yet...since the second leg down and derivatives blow up will be coming into focus over the next couple of months."
And that, along about November/December, will reveal a horrible truth about globalism: Can't just write a check and have problems go away presto-chango like. --- That being said, it may be easy enough to dismiss the 40-50-thousand people a day who read this column as economic whacko's who, despite having beat the grim reaper in the financial markets over the past couple of years, just 'got lucky.'
But, as this morning's headline points out: "We are not alone."
For example, "IMF says worst not over; record fall in Euro jobs..." and I'd have to agree.
While Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner was at the G-8 this weekend as well, and trying to sound upbeat, those stories which might lead the casual observer to hold hope of a quick recovery seem to have forgotten that the so-called 'experts' were saying in October of last year that we'd be in a recovery right now.
Guess who got that little forecast wrong?
I see where Boeing expects an order upturn in 2010 but once again, I believe that history will make another example here of 'experts getting it wrong again."
The problem for Boeing is that with the US dollar headed for a slide, because the Fed is buying Treasuries, in a grand circular reference economy, the rest of the world is getting ready - this fall - to blow out of dollars. As other countries devalue the buck - meaning they won't buy as much overseas - that will mean prices will go up domestically for almost everything imported. By this time next year, if not late winter, the debate should be "so just what is the threshold where inflation turns into what would be accurately labeled hyperinflation?"
Oh, and even if Boeing does happen to see an uptick in plane orders in next year's environment of $250 and up a barrel oil, try to remember that a Dreamliner is not something you pop in the assembly line for one month later out comes an airplane. T
Then there was the world naked bicycle ride this weekend to protest oil dependency. I've been keeping an eye out for this one, LOL. --- No doubt you are supposed to be reassured when you read headlines like "Treasuries climb after Russia says it has Confidence in Dollar." But think about it: If you were dumping dollars, would you say "I'm dumping my bux?" Hell no! You'd spout all kinds of drivel to drive the prices as high as possible during your pump and dump operation, wouldn't you?
Oh, the sophistication levels of sheep...well, at least we're not alone. Even the Wall Street Journal describes the "Fed's Conundrum on Treasury Purchases."
That's the kind of financial shenanigans that might land us mere mortals like us in jail. Need more money? Just print up some promissory notes (bonds we'll call 'em) and pass them off to a 'banker in your pocket' who'll give you cash in return - then spend it quick! Sure sounds like a scam, doesn't it?
But like I said: "Why go to jail when you can go to Washington?"
I'm sorry, got carried away: Conundrum then. And maybe we are alone...
Trade Disaster Continues Port of Long Beach says May inbound cargo was down 22.8% YoY and outbound cargo was down 26.7%. Declines at LA probably are less, but we should have their figures tomorrow or Wednesday. Word substitution for the word 'trade': Suxabunch.
Markets The market futures were down about 1% when I looked this morning, a cup-and-a-half back. Wondering why? I mean besides the illusion that we're in a big recovery is on the verge of breaking down? Answer is simple: Options triple witch week, CPI figures due out tomorrow, along with he producer price index and building permits. A kind of Super Tuesday for the nail-biters who chase paper. Darned Nervous Nellie's. Fools may be more like it.
Iran's Elections I see where "Ahmadinejad's re-election may hamper nuclear talks, EU says". Damned geniuses is what they are...geniuses! Wonder if Iran imported any used Florida voting machines?
Head's Up of the Week Here's one for you to ponder: How is it that in an admittedly small sample (of more than a dozen people) I've heard reports about, NO ONE is getting the same serial number precious metal bars shown on their warehouse receipts when they go to take delivery! Why aren't bar numbers matching up? Little accounting problem going on, or something else? --- Meantime, speaking of bar talk, the Royal Canadian Mint is telling customers 'Your gold is safe with us..." --- I don't care how exciting it is to take delivery of a 100 ounce bar of whatever, my advice is really simple: match up the warehouse bar number with what's presented at delivery! I'm just not a very trusting fellow, am I? Am I being paranoid or prudent? Watch as history catches up...
Future History Week And yes, this week the next ALTA report from Half Past Human is due out in a day or two...as soon as it's up, I'll post a note here. Or, go tot eh source: www.halfpasthuman.com home of the time monks and rickety time machine and such. $10-bucks last I heard and about 15-16 pages.
"Secession Talk Going Mainstream?" You want something to worry about? Skeptical of my 75-85 year econ cycle? OK, well, how about this round up of OMG, look what states are doing... from Michael Panzner's "economic road map" site [he's the author of "When Giants Fall"]. Definite must read.
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Coping: With Fire Ants If you haven't seen the Paul Stamets video on using mushrooms to solves ome of the world's problems, click here because it's worth it.
Now, where to get some...
Container Termites Been meaning to mention this: Oh oh...my dreams of the vermin-proof storage container - one of those 40'foot leftover shipping containers runs into a snag:
Hmmm...putting in a metal floor sounds like a bother...solutions anyone?
The Ownership and Tax Question Reader sends this:
Ah...and that's the sad fact of life, right there. Here in the "Land of the Brave, Home of the...." we're still all just sharecroppers on the King's...I mean duly elected bought & paid for government's - lands. Somehow, I had gotten the impression that wasn't what the Founders had in mind. --- The next tax-grab that may be expected is something called the 'imputed tax'. This is where, if you own your own home, the evil economic geniuses say that because you're not paying rent, then that's a benefit that you should be taxed on. Yeah, I can't make up idiocy like this - it's like taxing your savings account too - something I wouldn't put past 'em either. Why it's an asset on your financial statement, right? When that happens, I move somewhere else. ---- Gee, I can't figure out why secession talk would be spreading among the states, can you?
30-Miles Between Cities Touched on something in Peoplenomics this weekend that drew a fine and educational response:
Yep - thank God and government (if you can still distinguish between 'em) that safety standards have now made cars too heavy to move. Otherwise, guys like me would weld up a couple of bikes, put a lawnmower engine on it with water-injection and be happily getting 100 MPG all over the place. Can't have that, now, can we? Revenue chill'uns! Revenoo! --- But the 'good old days' may be backer sooner than the rulercrats think. You saw where due to the imploding economy where roads in Michigan are reverting to gravel? I might just weld up a super-mileage ultralight "Model G" this winter for the helluvit.
Around the Ranch: On Being Jinxed So there I was, drilling a fine hole in my yard with my Hydra-Jet well/hole drilling system. I was down about 40-feet on my way to a water-bearing strata ate 55-65 feet when my beloved neighbor across the road came over to supervise the job.
"Dman, it's a hot one to be working this hard," I began. I'd been working since about 6:30 and it was getting on towards noon Sunday and the temp was into the mid 90's here in East Texas, even in the shade.
"Aw, common George, it could always be worse...at least your equipment hasn't broken down and the engines are still running..." he offered and then moseyed back over to his place.
"Dang!" I thought to myself just soon as the words were out of his mouth. I knew this was bad ju-ju, a jinx, or some kind of an omen.
How did I know? I figure that for whatever reason, Universe listens very closely to my neighbor. Folks don't get to do multiple combat tours in places like Korea and Vietnam, collecting five Purple Hearts and an incredibly distinguished Special Forces career record without, oh you know, Universe being on their side in a serious way.
So I almost knew it in my gut the moment he made reference to 'the engines still running' that something was up.
Sure enough, I only had about 10-minutes to wait before the trash water pump coughed, sputtered a bit of blue smoke, and then continued. A few more minutes and the process repeated again. And again, and then lots of blue smoke and it died.
I shut everything down and checked the oil in the trash water pump. What had been nice dark oil was now a light gray emulsion. Didn't take the old rocket surgeon long to figure this one out: The bearing between the trash pump and the engine had failed and that had allowed the high pressure water to intrude into the gas engine's crankcase, which turned the oil into a water-emulsion, and that was either wearing heavily on the rings, or was just in the process of seizing up the main bearings...not that it mattered either way.
So this morning, as soon as the column is done and I get a little caloric uptake issue handled, it'll be off to the local Tractor Supply armed with a $300-dollar bill to find a successor, and then a stop at the local auto parts store for a couple of those $8 bottles of Royal Purple (synthetic oil) to reduce the chances of a rerun.
Still, seemed like a fitting Sunday reminder from Universe about "be careful what you - or anyone else around you - wishes for something or even gives voice to a fear, lest it be made so. Left me pondering how the Universe does its dance of co-creation with humans and why I haven't been able to make it work even a little bit with lottery tickets while the slightest reference by my neighbor seems to be able to wreak havoc with my drilling equipment.
One thing it did clear up, however. Universe does not take Sunday's off anymore, and I wonder it it has an ownership interest in TSC or the trash pump company and this is just how to drum up business? I'm convinced there has to be some kind of lesson in here somewhere, so I'll buy a lotto ticket while I'm in town....Just in case.
Know how Universe seems to dance, I may win back about exactly what the trash pump will set me back (About $350) and that way, perfect balance in Universe would be maintained.
Before the chart, a little background: Once upon a time, a long while ago, I observed during my quest for 'truth' in economics, that the PowersThatBe, the talking heads on the teeve, and the other information sources that actively engage in the programming of humans not to think, had conveniently swept several trillions of dollars that disappeared in the Internet Bubble's bursting (since spring 2000) under the rug. Surely, it wasn't unnoticed by the thousands of people who called brokers and said "Where is my money?" "Gone, but hang in there as you're a long term investor!" was about all they heard back.
So one of our charts for Peoplenomics subscribers oughta be widely circulated - it shows that if you line up the peak of the Dow in January 2000 with the peak in early September of 1929, we're on a very very close replay track. Much closer than even the chart shows if you were to back out inflation, and put in the effects of 1929 deflation, but that'd be real work, and I'm sort of lazy if the truth be told.
No, it's not a perfect replay of 1929, but history doesn't repeat exactly, it only rhymes. So think of this as the rhymes and the crimes chart:
"George, that's only a coincidence!" your monkey-mind will protest.
Why sure it is...you bet. A 9½ year long coincidence...yessir....just a coincidence, I'm sure...
Write when you get rich,
George Ure, The People's Economist |
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In order to do this efficiently, I've written up a PowerPoint and I
show you the slides I'd put up in a board room if someone were
foolish enough to ask me to place some bets on how the future's
going to work out. Not foolish because I'd be wrong, but maybe
foolish because who wants to see this coming?
I got to asking...Hmmm...How can a group of 40-50-thosuand
people a day who read this site be turned into a major
breakthrough in magnetics and new electrics? How about by
setting up a private super-sized Manhattan Project? Easy!
Well, almost....
