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Published Monday - Friday about 8 AM Central Time Except Holidays....many major typos are fixed by 8:30 daily
Saturday June
6, 2009
07:
55 A CDT
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Depression Through 2013? Although the gain on the Dow of just under 13-points on Friday may not have felt like a 'big deal' this hasn't been a bad week for the markets in spite of a 9.4% unemployment rate and GM filing for bankruptcy earlier, and the recent Chinese students laughing at our Treasury Secretary's promise of our currency's future worth.
A week ago, the Dow was sitting on 8,500 and this last week added about 263-points. Not a bad performance. In fact, such a good performance that one has to wonder what's behind it?
I expect that we're seeing several factors at work here. First is the wave count, which argues that we should now advance to the 9,600 to 9,700 level - or beyond - those are just minimal targets I've got) before setting up for the next 'biggie' to the downside this fall. Linguistically by the www.halfpasthuman.com work, that ought to be clearly visible before the first of September.
One reason the indices mat be advancing is that there are so many dollars chasing the available stocks. Not only is the inflation underlying the 'recovery' starting to drip into the financial system, but the 401 (k) money has to go somewhere.
I liken the inflation impacts to what happens to an income-producing piece of property when inflation comes calling: Everything else being equal, inflation will drive up the price of a commercial building and that may explain at least part of what's going on with the market, since underlying ('book') values of companies go up in the presence of inflation. And, the market share value of a company appreciates quickly, too, since market share is worth something, as long as the present business paradigm is in place.
Here over a cuppa Joe on Saturday morning, it seems (as it has since the Second Depression began with the Internet bubble collapse in early 2000) that public policy has been to attempt the delicate balance between a deflationary Second Depression, which would have resulted if the banksters hadn't been bailed out on the one hand, and the hyperinflation that would land us in the same fiscal condition as the Weimar Republic or Zimbabwe on the other.
OK, so once in a while there'll be massive infusions of liquidity and the government will have to act like a loan-sharking goon squad, but considering the alternative is a full-on Depression like the 1930's - which would put the whole American business paradigm at risk, it's clear printing money is the best policy since it has at least some potential for a muddle-through solution.
Provided, that is, we don't have a modern times replaying of Bank Herstatt, which in 1974 almost ended financial life on earth when it failed to deliver as promised, setting up the potential for systemic financial collapse. It's believed (or is the word prayed more correct here?) that continuous settlement and other mechanisms will avoid that possibility, but that's what makes this fall so interesting as the pressures build toward dynamic failure. --- The 1935 musical Porgy & Bess comes to mind. "It's summertime, and the living is easy..." Unless, of course, you go reading articles like "Temp work helps mask joblessness among Americans." If I've got my "Replaying 1929 scenario dialed in right, an aware person ought to be able to look at contemporary history from the 1920's and 1930's and match up modern events.
Just for example, we're advised in "Nights in the big city By Joachim Schlör" that "On 3 May 1920 the Association of Hotel, Restaurant, and Coffee House Owners presented a petition to the government [of Germany - G] requesting it once again recognize a later closing time as a necessity of life." Not that the closing time is significant here, but the status of coffee houses is.
Thus, the wise investor, realizing the larger rhyme (coffee houses being a big deal in the 1920's) would have been an early investor in Starbucks, which beginning at a couple of bucks a share had five stock splits before ultimately peaking in late 2007 at nearly $40 a share.
I mention this because I think Starbucks may be a pretty good proxy for what a chart of the emotional 'feel' of the Second Depression will be like - and to academics and perpetual students (like me) a study of the offset between an objective market measurement like my Aggregate Index and Starbucks' pricing, may give us a way to look at just how far government systemic efforts can offset temporally the maximal impact of Depression 2.
Recall that in the 1930's event, that $3.6 billion had been directly lost by depositors as banks were failing at the 4,000 per year rate. Here in the Second Depression, we're often reminded by government officials and other defenders of the current business paradigm that 'things aren't so bad."
Still, with the shotgun marriage of the Bank of Lincolnwood (Illinois) to another bank on Friday by the FDIC, the number of banks that have failed is 62 - admittedly a small number compared with the 1930's. However, as I've pointed out previously, the seemingly small number of banks masks that 2,902 bank branches have closed and a further 4,932 ATM's have closed, so the distance between the first Depression and Second Depression is really less than simple statistics might suggest.
Moreover, there has has been $200-billion pumped into banks plus several trillion dollars elsewhere in order to 'paper over' the seriousness of the times and defend the paradigm. Without a doubt, we'd be deep in Depression 2 already without the free-flow of bailout money that both Bush and Obama have been orchestrating.
Not to sound like a broken record here, but the reason it doesn't yet feel like a Depression is that the 1930's breakdown was instant: The losses were plain when people showed up at failed banks and couldn't get their money out. In the modern analog, we can still get our money, but the ultimate costs will be just as real; we just won't feel it till we have to pay the recovery costs as inflation is really a tax on savings and future tax burdens weigh down the recovery.
Oh...and as the comparison of the actual financial losses represented by the all-time purchasing power peak in my Aggregate Index suggests (March 2000) and the all-time high of Starbucks stock price (May 2006), I can now estimate how much offset from the 1930's we're experience here in Depression 2: 74-months.
That's what massive government intervention, the whole 9/11 and War on Terror thing, and the trillions of inflation to come has bought us: 74-months of what an electronics engineer working on an AGC circuit would call 'hang time'.
And this means what, exactly, since there's usually a bottom line to my notes?
Well, I'm now willing to throw my first dart at when this Second Depression may bottom. Take the nominal Dow high in October 2007 (14,066) and add 6-years plus two months.
We should experience the absolute bottom of Depression 2 in December of 2013.
Sorry to be the bearer of bad news. Still, plenty of time to be proactive and more on that for www.peoplenomics.com subscribers in Sunday's report.
Defend The Paradigm Reading Interesting part of a headline: "Immelt orders Nielsen Media Iceds over GE-NBCU-Obama story" --- He who pays the piper calls the news?
Flat Tax The Governator may be seeing the light.
Weather Mess South Beach (outside Miami) was more like South Swamp on Friday.
Around the Ranch: Hand Me the Scissors A short report this morning, since I now get to hop on a 33-foot scissor lift and do some tree trimming. Our private microwave shot (which puts me 2-hops from fiber) is being interfered with by trees. Since my son is down visiting, he'll provide a little 'armstrong' and we'll do some serious tree topping. Always fun to do that kind of thing. With all the foliage on the trees, my link quality scores are low since signals are running about -86 dBm. Want them up to -70 dBm and between the scissor lift and saws, we should be able to hit that.
Ham Radio Note: If there's any time left over, wink wink, nudge, nudge, I've been tinkering with what I call the "Texas Monster Loop" - 560 feet of wire hung as a horizontal loop for ham radio use hung up at the 40-foot level. If my modeling is anywhere near right, this ought to perform something like this on the 20-meter band:
The thing about this design (if you have room for 140-foot legs) is that it's nearly all NVIS on the 160-meter band (Perfect!), a nice mix of NVIS and 50 degree take-off angle on the 80-meter band, while from there upward, the take-off angle comes down toward the horizon. Again, Woo-hoo!
If this is anywhere near right, a modest 2 KW PEP ought to have an effective radiated power at optimum take-off angles on the high bands of something like 16 KW. Or, more conservatively, a 5-watt lower power (QRP) rig with 5-watts would have an ERP around 40-watts at optimum angles. So, how cool is that?
OK, more coffee and where's my chain saw... see you Monday. Unless you're a subscriber, in which case the Sunday chalk talk is strategies once a bottom is in. --- Send comments to george@ure.net --- Peoplenomics Time to Kill the Advertising Industry Want to do something revolutionary? Which if done at one fell swoop would reduce pollution, dramatically reduce crime of many sorts, and at the same time would defuse the mass consumption paradigm while reducing the public susceptibility to political jingoism and persuasion group manipulation. You see, the truth of the matter is that excess consumption and shoddy products is at the core of today's business paradigm. It's why Detroit hasn't turned out the 'million mile car' yet, but Kenworth (PACCAR) builds that level of quality into trucks every day. It's why car styles change from year-to-year in order to hype 'novelty' and 'position' since 4-wheels and a motor has been around more than a hundred years. So pour a fresh cuppa Joe and let's get real about this...starting with...
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"Live on $10,000" Updated What? You haven't ordered the ebook "How to Live on $10,000 a year -- or less"? Suit yourself. We're all going to live it shortly, anyway. I just thought you might like a heads up by reading about how to do it before you get pink-slipped. But, suit yourself OR visit www.liveontenthousand.com or, click one of the following button:
Yep - still possible. I also took a bit of additional material that was pertinent from recent issues of Peoplenomics and included them. The whole thing runs about 65 pages, but it gives you a vision of how to not only live on the aforementioned dollar amount, but also how to migrate up the economic foodchain if you make a little more than that and do some active savings... Click here for the page with more details on it. ---- Last week's report is here. For back issues of this site, click here. (Goes back to 1997!)
Friday June 5, 2009 9.4% Unemployment Continues to Worry As expected, the gasoline on the fires of the Wall Street rally should take off with the government reporting an improvement in the Current Employment Situation Report today:
So how is another 345,000 jobs disappearing an improvement? Well, the rate of unemployment increase is slowing. Wooo-hoo! But now, let me put on my Sherlock Holmes hat here and go off doing a little 'detecting' around this 9.4% solution....
First stop is the CES Birth/Death Model. This is where the government gets to 'guesstimate' what jobs were created. While it is portrayed as being a reasonable statistical inference, if you click over here and read it, you'll find that almost 700,000 jobs (694-thousand to be precise here) have been 'estimated into existence' so far this year.
And, in Table A-12, in the U-6 report, Alternative measures of labor underutilization, we see the real "Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers" is running a Depression era kind of number 16.4% - up from the previous month's 15.8%
And the market reaction before the open? Up. Go figure.
Shocking Figure The story in USA Today this morning headlined "Benefit spending soars to new high" includes this interesting revelation: "...one of every six dollars of Americans' income is now coming in the form of a federal or state check or voucher."
I read that and the underlying numbers from the Bureau of Economic Analysis that this totals $17,000 per household and I get to thinking that either the government is getting a lot more than that from each household in the way of taxes or there's a blowup on the way...
Microsoft May Offshore ...jobs presently done in the US if a tax on UIS companies foreign profits is enacted. --- But wait! Not picking on Microsoft here, but instead, looking at the general case: This goes to what I've been telling you for years about big companies: They put the jobs where the owners of the company can make the most money and since company owners usually pay a much lower percentage of their income as tax than you and I do (especially since Social Security is really a tax, since the money goes into the government's General Fund because there really is nothing more than an accounting shell-game with the so-called "Social Security Trust"). My simple solution? Tax everything coming into the US from offshore in a manner that would reflect the wage rate differential on a purchasing power parity and net tax & transportation basis.
In other words, if a company can make a product in India or China and land it here in the USA for $10 and can make it in the USA for $20, then each item imported ought to be charged $10 in taxes - which would go to support unemployment because we should be able to make the product here.
That way, the decision where to locate production facilities becomes neutral which - on a more reasonable planet - it would be. In fact, there should be penalties for everything not done locally!
Oh, and the benefit? Going local with trade disincentives would reduce the huge amount of energy wasted getting cheap goods from overseas to America.
To simple? Too honest? To fair to all humans? Why of course! Which is exactly why the rich, super-rich, and beyond can never let it come to pass. They depend on wage and living standard differentials to make their money and then hide behind falsehoods like "free trade" to keep feathering their nests while destroying the planet.
Something's gonna give, sooner or later. And it's that prospect when bonds the rich into their clubs, councils, and forums - to come up with mumbo-jumbo why they should lead and all the other power-tripping stuff.
Pay Czar Seems there's been enough of an issue raised about how taxpayer money gets put into companies that persist in making big (and sometimes huge by unemployed folks standards) to executives who may (or may not) have earned it. Answer: The Pay Czar.
Easier answer? Don't put taxpayer money into failing companies. I'd bet without a federal bailout, some other car company would have picked up the pieces from GM and Chrysler, but that's speculation and water under the bridge now.
You do, I hope, realize that the TARP program's $700-billion pencils to $2,287.58 or so for every man, woman, and child in America?
Take the Money - Or Else South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford has been ordered to accept $700-million of bailout money from the federal government. Their State Supreme Court ordered it.
A couple of more entries today: "Fox developing arranged marriage reality show" we read this morning.
Then there's the case of the "EMT charged with posting photo of corpse on Facebook"
Remember the Logan Act? I see here were "Al Gore may go to NKorea to help US reporters" and there's the sentence in here that he will be going "...in order to negotiate the release of two American journalists..."
Not to be a stick-in-the-mud here, but as you may recall, the "The Logan Act is a United States federal law that forbids unauthorized citizens from negotiating with foreign governments. It was passed in 1799 and last amended in 1994. Violation of the Logan Act is a felony, punishable under federal law with imprisonment of up to three years."
So who authorized him to go negotiate something? That's what I wanna know...I mean isn't that why we have the Secretary of State?
--- snip and save section ---
Coping: Search Speculation as AF-447 Still Not Found Seems like whenever there's a big event that pops on the news and makes headlines, there follow all kinds of speculations that run around the net suggesting that instead of 'natural events' that there's maybe something else - something larger - going on.
Take for example this Air France plane. On the one hand, you can find contemporary postings that while not referencing the crash, seem...oh...you know...ah....coincidental. Like the report about a "UFO invasion of earth imminent" which focuses on the recent spate of UFO sightings in Brazil. And this one that says "Air France tragedy: UFO connections beyond coincidence."
Quickly, let me do an Alcoa head wrap.
On the other hand, I get some emails that are more fact-based, such as this one:
That quake was at 10:47 PM local time at the epicenter on May 30. As Wikipedia notes about the aircraft's timing: "The aircraft departed Rio de Janeiro-Galeão International Airport on 31 May 2009 at 19:03 local time (22:03 UTC), with a scheduled arrival at Paris-Charles de Gaulle Airport approximately 11 hours later."
Meantime, the crash site search continues since yesterday's report that the "Brazilian air force says debris was not from Air France crash..."
Meantime, with the linguistics suggesting some kind of royalty might be involved in the first of the summer's big 'disappearances', we note with interest that "Brazil's former royal descendant on board missing Air France flight" so part of the predictive linguistics was fulfilled on that count.
I expect that over the weekend, I'll get the usual flurry of emails offering this explanation for the flight or that, so I'm keeping the tinfoil handy (as in hat), but having done a fair amount of flying in the tropics and even some to South America, my list of suspects as to cause continues to be topped by a weather event in the inter-tropical convergence zone as my #1 while terrorist bombing runs a distant second place since oil was seen in the search area. Speculation like 'meteor shower' are behind that.
So for now, the families in Brazil, France, and elsewhere, continue their watch awaiting a confirmed debris field. --- Seems to me that the unreported story may be the impact that a crash /missing plane like this has on people in the airline business. That doesn't make much in the way of ink, but it's the nightmare every airline exec in the world copes with every waking (and many sleeping) hours.
Having spent a bit of time in the airline industry, I can tell you first hand. You're standing on the ramp watching one of your planes depart from [wherever] and it's loaded to the gills - maximum take-off weight on one of the year's hottest, most humid days when the a/c is operating near the limits. And then it hits you: You've got 182 passengers, crew, and baggage on your shoulders. Hell of a realization when it strikes you that if anything goes wrong, even if everything is 100% by the book, your butt is the one in the sling.
The plane makes it take-off roll, hits V-1 (front wheel lifts) as the aircraft rotates near it's chord line, and then V-2 as the main gear comes off. You mentally make a note to check on weight & balance reports.
Air speed increasing the rate of climb goes way up, the gear go up as the plane climbs smoothly toward assigned cruising altitude. And then you think to yourself "Whew...OK, that's done...now what's next on the list...."
Everyone on your team is a hero/heroine when you're in airline management and you pray that every flight is perfect, but you live with the odds. And once you're out of the industry, when you read about something like Air France, you think back on personal a close call here and there and think "There, but for the grace of God, go I." Universe bestows favors for reasons beyond our ken.
Open Carry Church Speaking of prayer, you see where there's a church in Kentucky that is encouraging 'open carry" of firearms to services? Wonder if they will serve up a sermon on "Thou Shalt Not Kill" to go along with that?
Taxing Gold Concept In Thursday's report, I posited the possibility that the government - this fall when the screws get tightened on us - might cobble up a register and tax scheme for gold to accomplish the main reason for confiscation: Elimination of a competing money/monetary system to protect the broken paper asset franchise.
Reader in the UK sends this:
Shovel's in hand: "Just hope I can remember where...oh-oh...could be an expensive 'senior moment here.... hmmm, now where did I...."
N-95 Works A good reply from a reader to the article linked earlier this week on N-95 masks from our consulting PhD Microbiologist:
Yup. Figured that 'something' is better than 'nothing' in this stuff.
On the Reading List "Undermining Democracy: 21st Century Authoritarians" which this study by Freedom House, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, and Radio Free Asia identify as China, Iran, Pakistan, Russia and Venezuela. Seems to me the list could be a little longer when we're talking about authoritarian countries, you know? Like the kind that put troops in almost 150 countries maybe to enforce their paradigm?
Thursday June 4, 2009 Looking Ahead: Plans to Tax Gold? Seems as though the effects of the presently evolving Second Depression are being felt in some high places and not just amongst us commoners, as I read how Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner's home in Westchester County, NY, has been rented out because it didn't sell in today's crumby real estate market. Home sales are quite down even in relatively well-to-do Westchester County.
All of which wouldn't be so interesting on the surface, if along about the same time, two other stories weren't emerging which may lend some perspective on the nation's financial future.
The first story involves Geithner's plan to "unveil regulatory reform plans" on June 17th and the next day, June 18th, he's planning to make an appearance before Barney Frank's committee to explain the larger context of the plan. Regulatory reform?
OK, nothing so worrisome there, except that we're also reading this second story which has popped up in Canada about how the Canadian "Mint Can't account for missing gold."
(Not related, but perhaps worth noting on the way to my point this morning, is that some Canadian Border Service Agency (the Canuck Border Patrol) are being armed. Interesting timing.)
The Toronto Star this morning informs us that there's a question as to whether anything is really amiss, since no one knows at this point whether it's sloppy accounting, a heist, or whatever. Authorities at the Mint won't say how much is involved, but this is interesting for this reason.
According to the predictive linguistics work out of www.halfpasthuman.com, there is some indication in the data that there will be more than just this Canadian story around the 'missing gold' meme, and that by the end of the year (or thereafter a ways) there will be questions about our own gold stores at Fort Knox.
Concurrently, as the year goes on, the linguistics seem to paint a picture of the US government trying to come up with a way to tax gold transactions in some manner. Linguistically in the ALTA 1109 report it has a 'feel' of the government wanting to suppress non-paper financial asset trading because it's about to give the paper/proxy money some serious headaches.
So much so, that I will be reading the proposed new Treasury regulations cautiously, looking for wording that will go to some kind of non-paper financial assets tax at the time ownership changes. Maybe something hugely onerous, too. I mean think about it: The Canadian Mint story revealed that Canadian Maple Leaf production was up what, 352% last year? Taxpersons salivate as such, I'm sure since as inflation arrives, history gold has benefited... --- Now let me go to the speculation on my part. From a public policy perspective I think it's likely to have the following elements in place this fall:
Suppose, now, that you were sitting in either Tim Geithner's chair, or Ben Bernanke's. What policies would you implement today while times are still normal (at least in a manner of speaking) that would line up requisite authority for the federal government to tax non-dollarized assets so as to prevent the overnight emergence of a competing economic and monetary system that would almost surely arise in reaction to massive (on the other of 40-60% in the coming two years) as debt for the 'too big to fail' crowd comes along with it's own piper to be paid?
Something to be considered here is the notion that even though royal/despots/PowersThatBe/central governments all like to exact as much power and control over their 'subjects' as possible, there's a line, which once crossed, takes so much away from people that they have nothing more to lose and that's how things like the French Revolution get started.
On the other hand, by cleverly imposing a system of control now with a tax on anything that could compete with paper money - created for a few cents a copy using paper and ink which is passed off as a store of value, what would youi do? I mean if you were Mr. Secretary and didn't want to fall victim to a society which, upon seeing the potential to 'go Zimbabwe', wouldn't on its own start moving away from paper assets, what's within the realm of doable?
Register and tax.
Consider something which would require registration of all gold, silver, and precious metals and exact an initially low tax on transactions, which could then be quickly ratcheted up.
Given a huge fine and/or jail time for failing to register gold and silver, no doubt some people would see the game and fail to do so. What would follow would be example prosecutions yet - and this is important to the PTB - there would be ultimate deniability. "We're not confiscating gold, we're just trying to insure you hoarders pay your tax on the gain when it comes time to sell it. Can't have you continuing to cheat on your fair portion of income taxes with your gold gains!"
Ah, it's all so predictable. Turn the 'haves vs. have-not's' dialectic around on the People and then orchestrate further confiscation of gains. And, I'd note, without fear. After all, when the CONgress ignores the will of the public on things like the $650/per capita give-away to the crooked banksters of $200-billion who over-levered the financial system, this is merely a walk in the park.
Buying companies up without giving the ultimate shareholders (us) any durable title or representation on the boards of companies like GM and AIG, well, we're apparently dumb enough to go for it.
All of which gets back to the register and tax model. The prototype for this kind of behavior came from automobiles. People in the early days would build their own cars and run them on wagon-track roads. But, over time, registration came along, and then we all dumbly and lamely started paying for permission to use something we'd already paid for through our taxes. Yet, that's how government works.
Same thing with property: you never really own it. You pay the government property tax - a sort of partnership at gunpoint to strong-arm you into paying for public education, rather than have another mechanism for accomplishing that. Fail to pay property taxes and out comes the local sheriff with a gun - after some period of time - to kick you off the land you thought you bought. Like my tax attorney says "Government's your silent partner in property anyway." So long as you pay the hush-money.
So to bottom line you on what I'm presently worried about: I'm looking over the next four months, or so, for the groundwork to be laid for the mechanism here in Depression 2 under which government can (and no doubt will) confiscate non-paper wealth from you without the necessity of direct confiscation.
Requiring you to buy 'gold stamps' and 'silver stamps' without which, you would not be able to legally sell your gold to anyone is probably sellable public policy in the Prozac'ed and foxnotized Once Great Republic for which we stood.
Long as we're at it, how about an ammunition tax? Only a matter of time... It's like drugs and the Harrison Act - it's all about taxing.
Especially when I see headlines like "Northwestern Mutual Makes First Gold Buy in 152 Years."
Better Loan Sharking Department "Fed said to toughen terms for banks to repay TARP" is deliciously ironic.
"How so?" Remember all those times you got jacked around with bank card terms being changed on you without notice that was readily actionable and ugly terms in all the fine print? Nice to see how Universe turns around and smacks back at the Banksters. This is what 'change of terms we didn't agree to" feels like. T.S. - and get over it. That's what we consumers were told, right? Deal.
BOE: Rock Not the Boat Until the PTB can line up the next steps in the further concentration of wealth in the hands of the 300 richest families in the world, I see that the Bank of England has left rates unchanged.
I'll just put that on the news hook labeled "Don't Rock Boat' and move on.
Rock-Not 2 Ditto the European Central Bank.
Productivity Latest (revised) Q1 estimates from the Labor Department:
Meantime, the jobless rate dropped for the first time in 20 weeks in the latest reporting period, which ought to be candy for the markets today. I think an improved jobless report tomorrow would throw some gas on the rally.
That's Some Quote While President O is in Egypt this morning, here's a rather interesting quote from a report of his speech: "“Given our interdependence, any world order that elevates one nation or group of people over another will inevitably fail." --- That's an alternative reality, for you. Here in the world I live in, "He who pays the Piper calls the tune..." And China owns the pipe. --- While Obama's call for opening dialog with the Islamic world might seem a reasonable thing, it's a bit late with "Iran's Khamenei saying the US is 'deeply hated' in Mideast." I mean, doesn't anyone appreciate that it is US Manifest Destiny to conquer all lands, liberate all people, and take what resources we want, whether labor or liquid? I mean really...we got us a paradigm to defend here!
Up In Smoke Speaking of...did you see where the guy who founded the Liberty Dollar alternative economic concept is reported to have opened the "free Marijuana Church of Honolulu"?
Wonder if 'church papers' are Zig-Zags now?
123 Real Change Hmmm...along about here on the timeline, we're supposed to see serious energy going into the 'secrets revealed' meme along with a lot of focus on 'whistleblowers' being invited and coming to the fore. What's this? "Project Expose MSM Reports" is now up and running with a website. --- A story about how "Secret Canada nuclear papers left in a TV studio" has me wondering how much of this is accidental, or are we about to really get a wave of 'secrets revealed' and major 'whistle-blowing"?
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Coping: With High Strangeness Mention yesterday of the [many] problems encountered with trying to be on 'right path' with Universe does bring up an interesting point. Once you start looking, you'll often find what time-monks-in-training are instructed are 'sync-winks' from Universe.
"Nonsense! George, Ure out there on a limb again..." True that, but in case youi didn't know, one of the most widely described and referenced cases of a 'sync-wink' - labeled in psychology as Carl Jung's experience with the Golden Scarab is worth a serious read before tossing out the concept as unworkable and unreal.
In that case (to summarize it because I know you're busy and all, Jung one day was working with a patient as the great psychiatrist that he was, and his patient was describing a 'golden beetle of scarab."
Well, wouldn't you know? Along comes one to bang into a cabinet window at that precise moment. Which surprised Jung enough to also go tripped down sync-wink/dancing with Universe Road...
OK, with the long lead-in, here's the sync-wink of the day email:
I'm no Jung, but I'd sure be out buying lottery tickets with those numbers for Saturday's drawing. Or, check the Wednesday drawing if you had one, LOL. Or, maybe Universe is trying to get you to call someone with that phone number? Maybe the difference between the exact frequency and the ISBN is an area code you're supposed to be calling? Who knows...but let us know if you hit on the lotto, or call somewhere to discover a long-lost friend, or something. Universe has an odd way of being odd.
Another 'go where Universe says email?
Does seem to work that way. And, speaking of the power of powerfully visualizing (which Universe seems to reward or work toward (which is the real power behind prayer, you think?):
There are actually quite a few of us who visualize several times a day what we want our idea life to come out as...and it (so far) has done a nice job of complying with the vision...
Who Was That Masked Man? Seems those N-95 masks you have been stockpiling may be of only limited value according to a report here. Which is why we have a set of full-face N-100 gear here.
Where Do I Sign Up? "Take five-year holiday to cut costs, Spanish bank invites employees." Oh, hell yeah...
British Brain Washing The UK's Mail has a good article: "Little Brother is watching you: Children of ten are taught how to spot a terrorist in police DVD."
Now if they'd just teach 'em how to recognize the terrorists who run for office.... What about a line-up on the MP's who padded their expenses for a starter?
Twisted Memories Flexible memory chips "A twist on chip-based memory" headlines a story.
And there we go reinventing ourselves in silicon. Since we already have enough twisted memories in humans, we now go to this....
Wednesday July 3, 2009 9700 Insight I hope you caught this week's Aggregate Index Chart which showed that as of last week's close, we were poised to break out to the upside. A check with Robin Landry, who's a managed accounts guru in Shawnee, Oklahoma, confirmed it. "Yes, George, my model has turned and is now pointing the way up toward the 9,700 area on the Dow in the July-August timeframe."
OK, so now we can sit back and be long as the happy-talk comes roaring out of almost every statistic out there. Today's list?
Why there's more feigned happiness here than than accompanies a rich man showing up at a bawdy-house. Even more, perhaps, since tomorrow we may see decent productivity numbers, and then Friday some good news in the unemployment numbers. OK, not party-in-the-streets good, but an improve rate of descent. Any port in a storm, huh? A few downs along the way - like maybe today, but the trend to the upside seems there.
And linguistically, it's all coming together back to the track I outlined last December; the decline into spring, the rally into summer, and then get-out-of-Dodge for the events this fall. Like the failure of the dollar.
For the next month or two, however, being on the long side of this market is a no-brainer until 9,600-9,700 comes in sight. Once we get there you'll want to have www.stopbitingnails.com bookmarked. You're gonna need it.
Obama's Roots One of the reasons, of course, why this will turn into a nail-biter this fall -- I mean besides the derivatives collapse taking root in late August - is president Obama's roots, which are emergent now as a 'prequel' under the headlines "The Emergence of President Obama's Muslim Roots" over on the ABC News web site.
President O is in Saudi Arabia today.
All of which builds to an archetype image the White House being in 'bunker mentality mode" by November, or so. Because by then the financial free-fall with be going, Israel will have attacked Iran and who knows what else will be collapsing besides the Dollar by then. Which brings up...
Catch a Falling Dollar Although the dollar hit a seven-month low against the British Pound this week, I don't think this is the 'big IT' just yet. Patience, as always if you're shorting it. --- However, since we live in a contrary-working world, don't be surprised that as the dollar goes up a bit early today, that gold will soften, although the relative strength of silver vis-à-vis gold seems pretty good this morning, anyway.
Plane Sad The wreckage of Air France 447 which crashed off the coast of Brazil has been located. Next up: search for the black box. Bomb is suspected,; since there had been a threat a couple of days earlier, but the cause won't be known till (and IF) the black boxes are found and deciphered..
Britains "Expensive" Government Oh that's a story that continues to ring - about how the MP's expense padding leads to headlines like "Gordon Brown's government 'collapsing before our eyes'. But only for the unawares. The rest of it have expected it since Brown (as Chancellor of the Exchequer) sold off much of Britain's gold stores. Not presactly a genius, you think?
Terror in China 11-riots later, China has announced busting up seven terrorist cells in the Kashi region. Definition of terror is quickly turning into 'anyone who opposes the ruling party/paradigm. Trend to accelerate, defining and clarifying the duality between those who hold power and those who don't.
Trend very much present in the FSU (former Soviet Union), too.
Question the power/PTB paradigm in a meaningful way; and the beat goes on.
Hey Terrorists! Over There.... "Gov't posts sensitive list of US nuclear sites" reveals this headline. Anyone ever hear of checks and balances for sensitive info? Document checkout? Microsoft "SourceSafe"? Or, how about "One point dumb..." instead of "One point safe"?
Auto Pensions & GTA Lots of stories about like this one in USA Today "How bankruptcy filing affects GM pensions, benefits". The words that worry, for UAW works, are conditional phrases like "at least initially."
A little more direct is Greg Palast's piece "Grand Theft Auto: How Stevie The Rat Bankrupted GM."
If the details seem to difficult to sort out, Rebecca Price of www.toon-republic.com has simplified the situation this way:
The reason for the Second Depression, just in case you haven't noticed, is that history's greatest-ever Ponzi scheme is in the process of blowing up as the Baby Boomers in America get slapped with a bit of harsh reality: As they expect to take money out of the financial system when they retire, they're going to discover there's not really any 'money' there. Nope. Just bags of promises crafted by crooked politicians of both parties who've aided and abetted by the lobbyists for the special interests along the way.
As I expect UAW members will find out as the house of cards starts to fall in, the only way out is a deflationary depression or an inflationary depression. but you know which word is used in common with either case, I hope. --- Then speaking of labor relations, you see where in South Korea "Ssangyong Motor threatens to use police to end strike"? I wonder what the Korean word for 'government goon squad' is?
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Coping: Hummering Chinese You no doubt saw the headline about the Chinese buying the Hummer brand from GM? A reader who's expert in the auto business sent us this very good explanation of the complexities behind building versus branding in the auto world of today...
Well, I'll be dipped. If the 'New GM' comes out with a car based on the larger Daewoo platform - which had suspension tuned by Lotus, BTW, I might be one of the first guys in line to buy one. A couple of caveats: Shareholder discount (since you and me own most of GM as taxpayers, right?) plus they have to update the timing chain to something that don't break at 80K miles. If it costs another $5 at manufacturing time, do it! This building cars that have a built-in failure point with a $500-$1,000 bill (depending on car) to put in timing chains is crap. If it was Saturday and I was ornery I'd call it something else. If Kenworth pulled that kind of crap, they wouldn't be building 1-million mile trucks would they?
And people wonder why we don't trust the automakers? Get real or get out of business, says I. The world's past the resources tipping point to have con-job economics of continuous growth and excess consumption. Must be hard to see the earth from so high up above the plebes, huh?
Prepping Pays Off, Redux A fair bit of focus in the MainStreamMedia, of late, about the increasing number of 'preppers' and 'survivalists' that seem to be appearing. Most recently, heard Playboy Magazine might be working on a close look at the subject area...something I'd like to see not just because I've been a huge fan of the "Playboy After Dark" writing style, but because they (and Rolling Stone) usually get the perspective on things right/correct..
Terms like "preppers' and 'survivalists' have always bothered me, however, and I hope if they do the rumored article that they'd bring out the notion that what motivates many of us in not 'fear' but rather what I'd label "Victim Avoidance." Just as a squirrel isn't a 'survivalist by saving nuts and food for winter, I seriously doubt folks like us are doing anything other than following our own distant calling.
Neat letter this morning along this line:
All of which gets me to wondering what the right label for us kindred spirits might be? Is there a word like "responsiblist"? While we're at it, another thing in the same 'groove'....
Instant Karma Drops Hints There are times when it strikes me just how cool being on a 'path' is. Like the guy who's been planning for the 'just in case - how to turn lemons into lemonade' example above.
If you don't know what a 'path' is, lemme see if this makes sense. It's when you are doing things that are different than anything else you have done if your life, yet the Universe literally throws signs and portents at you along the way pushing youi in this direction, or that. It's sort of like picking up skills, tools, and weapons in a video game as you progress through it, except t'ain't no game. ---- It's been a fine week of moving along the path personally.
To begin with, on Monday I unveiled my commodity broker's new $10-ebook "MyGroPonics" which is all about how to grow tons of veggies in a small space (like one square foot small). I'm pleased to report he's sold more than 100 copies so far and everyone seems well-pleased. Here's the purchase link, BTW:
Yeah, fine, but what does this have to do with living in harmony? Well, first, and this really is cool: He had a nest of birds in one of his lettuce plants in one of the MyGroPonics trees. The birds hatched on the e-book's launch day. Universe apparently had a lot of energy to spend Monday.
Apparently, my next 'assignment' is to finish my novel and get that book about design of solar energy systems done. --- The you may remember the really strange dream I had last week - the really vivid one where a figure in the dream told me "Take this...you must learn Turnbull's Calculus." Odd, because I don't dream about math, and until then, I had no idea that anyone named Turnbull had written about calculus.
In order to get this next part, you need to recall that in the predictive linguistics, I have made 30 (or so) mentions of the term "duality." Like my 2006 mention of "the emergent duality"
So I open the first of my Turnbull is the author books on calculus to arrive from Amazon, with the modest title "infinite-dimensional optimization and convexity" only to stumble into this in the book's introduction:
Considering that the novel I'm writing (the one with the working title "dimension Barrier" is all about this odd period of history that seems to be arriving, I take this to be an auspicious bit of writer-coaching from Universe. Apparently, Universe thinks I need to read a math book to write better. OK, whatever..... LOL. No choice but to get to studying convexity, since I'm following, not leading this dance. ---- Next, there were the reports from readers who followed my recommendation Monday to purchase the Maxa-Tools Cookie Manager product for $35. The reason being that although you can find the odd lower-priced applications out on the internet, Maxa's Cookie Manager does a splendid job of managing the browser independent cookies which most products don't get (and clearing your browser cache won't get 'em all), the Maxa Cookie Manager has white (good) and black (bad) listing so you can have it automatically OK things like your online banking cookies, but that ad tracker cookie, it's toast.
BTW, The download of the free version is here www.urbansurvival.com/setupMCMstdGU.exe
Remember - the browser independent cookies are NOT removed unless you do the upgrade, which I highly recommend.
The cool part has been seeing how much readers are finding on their computers that they hadn't previously even suspected was there:
All of which has served to reinforce my suspicion that as we move forward over time, we are as a world going to move more and more into a period where it will become ever so much more important to live 'right' or 'on the correct path'.
If you do make earnest efforts to stick to the right path it seems that Universe has all kinds of pleasant surprises in store for us. In my own case, enough consulting work to live my dream life and go around sincerely trying to help people by being generous (which is way cool fun). Out here in the outback/dingle-berries or East Texas, though? Who'da thought? --- In the predictive linguistics, besides pitchforks of 'duality' emerging, there has been 'notice to time monks' about this 'path' stuff. As Cliff is fond of saying, it's as if "Universe provides the designated work and our task is to do it." Without going into the precise 'butt-kicking process', it seems Universe has demanded the resumption of ALTA at a lower price-point and with some rise in public awareness of the rickety time machine project.
There's also something else: This period of "Universe is gonna do unto you as you do unto others" is [linguistically] becomes so pronounced over the next couple of years that if you don't do the work, Universe is NOT going to be all nicey-nice.
Perhaps it explains the reason why the unfortunate end of John Lennon was so important. It may have smacked the PTB upside the head that someone saw this period coming long before it showed up in the predictive linguistics. In Lennon's song "Instant Karma;"
So the task before us this morning - like any other morning is really pretty simple: Trying to learn as best we can how to do a better job of living in harmony with the work Universe has laid before us at this time and place. Admittedly, at times I don't especially care for 'the work'. Other times, like the first couple of days this week, the grandness and majesty of how Universe works just blows me away. Like the harmony of JB's birds being born or 'Hey, that's cool" emails on a recommended product. Or someone benefitting from 'preparedness' and 'responsibleness'. ---- It could be that old George is just particularly dense, not to have appreciated all this 30-years earlier in Life. Seems, though, that Universe doesn't care whether one does, or doesn't though. The living in harmony decision is a matter of search, followed by choice and serious introspection; the process is arrived at by self-study and reflection of our own 'place in the plan'.
I can't tell you how many times in a meditative state my monkey-mind has interrupted with an urgent question that usually begins "Hey! You! If Universe works this way, then how come...." Try as I may, I usually come back to a really simple two-part answer.
The first half, perhaps oddly, since the movie deals with time travel and the immortal philosopher George Carlin, is the line in the movie "Bill & Ted's Excellent Adventure" where the edict is issued to "Be excellent to one another!"
The other half is the chorus from "Instant Karma".
"Well, we all shine on." Once we get past the illusions of fear and pain, that is.
Tuesday June 2, 2009 Bot Project: The Word "Weird" Comes to Mind While we await the return of the predictive linguistics reports on June 21st (or around in there) I can't tell you how many readers have written asking if the missing plane/disappearance of the Air France flight over the Atlantic with 228 people on board meets or met the prediction in the ALTA (Asymmetric Language Trend Analysis) reports out of www.halfpasthuman.com around the concept of missing/vanishing celebrities which was expected over the course of summer.
The answer is complicated, so bear with me:
First point to make is that the whole "disappearances" meme (*a thought virus or propagating idea in the MSM) was explained in ALTA 1309 this way:
Apparently, the 'disappears' meme is going to be persistent for the next few months, since in ALTA 1109 (February 7 ALTA Report) it was described this way:
Since January (ALTA 1109 - Part 4) - January 31, 2009) there's been an expectation that (in general) we'd see all kinds of 'disappearing' being done this year, with perhaps the odd suicide (yup) and then this description of what would have been a perfect fit:
All of which gets us to a curious point about linguistics: You may remember that the predictive linguistics were previously a bit off prior to the space shuttle disaster. In that particular case, the linguistics had made references to a 'maritime disaster' and 'gem of the ocean'. As history unfolded, we learned that the 'gem of the ocean' linguistic was an archetypical reference to the "Columbia" and further, that the 'maritime disaster' was a 'space ship.'
Time monks are, of course aware of - and working on such issues. The news event that would have fit much more closely than the Air France event would have been a 'Hollywood' or 'rich Middle East' yacht going 'Mary Celeste'. In other words, being found at sea with no one aboard.
Still, something like the discovery of the Air France jet and 50 people/bodies would give us some 'fill' on the expectations, but that would leave a lot more to come as the year goes on. And higher profile people and the entourages.
You can see how the linguistics can make air (or space) and ocean mistake -- especially when you're looking at a future event 6-months in advance - when you see headline like this one in the Washington post this morning. "Airliner Leaves Mystery in its Wake."
Notice how "wake" is used? It's got one definition that is equivalent to the term 'aftermath'. But in a nautical sense a 'wake' is the waves left behind a boat. Air ships and space ships and archetype imagery that describes waves/sinking is right next door in the lexicon to turbulence/crashing; such is the stock and trade of being a time monk.
No worries, though. What we're doing is not an accepted piece of academia - we're so far out on the bleeding edge of computational linguistics it's not even funny. Besides, if your healthy skepticism makes you deny that large groups of communicating humans presage the future /leaks the future in their conversations, then fine - we understand the defense mechanism and how denial works. Just keep taking them blue pills. We're hooked on these red ones.
(*This is all copyright stuff reproduced here with exclusive permission and any reposting of this requires a link to the www.halfpasthuman.com site and this page as well...thank you for playing nicely.)
We oughta get more sense of this around the June 21 start of the $10-weekly sales of individual reports which yeah, I can't hardly wait for either. --- If you're not familiar with the 'web bot project, a short 'cram course' can be found here. While you're welcome to be skeptical of nutters like us that claim to have invented a 'rickety time machine/future viewer' using the internet, before you go off attempting to debunk or slander; there are lots of other 'hits' for this project such as the Northeast Power Outage forecast and fulfillment described here, or you could look at the perfect prediction of the China earthquake in May of 2008. And, just in case you missed it, the wedding aspect of the quake was the dramatic pictures reported by MSNBC and other media under the headline "Wedding photographer captures China quake."
We don't claim to 'own the future' but we do claim some ability to do 'better than chance' at pulling out future events. So when items like 'death of the dollar' and 'summer of hell' pop out for later on this year, you're welcome to be skeptical, but just in case, you might want to take what may be only 'elevated potential' for certain kinds of outcomes into account. Think of it as a chance to NOT stand in the middle of a busy freeway...
Disappearances going mainstream in a big way, just for example.
Hollow Earth Problem Elsewhere in terms of linguistic fulfillments, a reader - apparently well briefed on hollow earth theory - sends this:
Until all land in the Arctic and Antarctic is thoroughly mapped and publicly accessible (when the ice is gone), we'll maybe never know. Still, have to wonder what governments are doing with underway cameras going into places like Lake Vostok and the 140-odd other under-the-ice sheets down in the Antarctic. Lost civilizations, anyone? --- Ponder of the day: If you lived in the Antarctic, would you still be liable for US incomes taxes if you're a US citizen? Or, going a bit farther, if you lived on Mars? These kinds of questions vex me. Maybe if I could borrow some meds from the Mogambo Guru, it'd help?
Summer of Hell Department As long as we're peering into the future, a couple of readers have asked (politely enough) "So, George, where's this summer of hell of yours?"
Well, it's coming - be patient - not the kind of thing to be in any hurry to get to. However, if you're aware that its coming, you no doubt caught Glenn Beck using the term a couple of days back. Oh, and then Jerome Corsi's later 'red alert' over at WorldNetDaily starts with the headline "Civil unrest to hit this summer?"
Another reader caught that "Chicago has 7 shooting deaths in 24-hours" and wonders if that might have a tie-in? I don't think so...at least not in the 'rage against the machine' kind of way directly. That's more likely just what happens when a lot of people on drugs (mood modifiers are used by something like 50% of people who can't cope with modern madness) get unemployed, angry and what have you. Or, they were nuts in the first place. Solutions? You want solutions? How about this:
A little more fluoride in the water in the Windy City, please...
Watching Angels Department While I sit around wondering how it can take the Bureau of Prisons a month and a half to move a prisoner from Long Beach to Seattle for a hearing in a Hells Angels appeal, there's this report out of Canada of a "Hells Angels clubhouse seized" in Ontario. Empty house.
Another Day, Another Company Department Now turning to our main stock-in-trade around here, namely documenting the unveiling of the Second Depression, a project I've been working on since start this site back in the mid 1990's, we see that "Citigroup stuck with Bernanke offer rival banks plan to refuse."
Still, the stock market has been on a real breakout to the upside - which I hope to chat with Robin Landry about today - so we may get our run to 9,600 and August yet. Super Friday should tell as unemployment and the Fed's Consumer Debt report come out.
Humming Along GM may sell of its Hummer operation, but no word on who the buyer might be. --- Interesting question to ponder here: Aren't there some long-term supply contracts for the .mil's involved? Wonder who's going to get it? Say, you don't think the 'found on road dead' people would do this, do you?
Roll Me a Number Department Auto and truck sales are coming out today. I expect that sales will actually be up a bit (or at least not as far down this time around. Reason? Dealers are pushing product like crazy trying to unload product, especially the Chrysler and GM dealer hit listed types.
How Far is UP? The European markets were taking a little breather in the early trading today, so a pause and then a drop of a hundred (or more) points ought to be expected here over the next day or two. Up and down - nice tradable stuff if you're one of the six still surviving daytraders left in the world...
Where's My Stock Shares? Letter I didn't - but have thought I might - write:
Then again, you caught this on Mr. Secretary of Paper's trip to China?
Yeah...real frigging funny.
NOT!
Understanding the Markets Most fine Niall Ferguson piece in the Financial Times: "History lesson for economics in thrall toi Keynes." A sharp-eyed reader noted this part in particular:
M ay I read to your from "The Book of Bond Dude"? "The purpose of recessions and Depressions is to return capital to its rightful owners." Oh, if you hadn't noticed...that's NOT you and me, figures the PTB in all this. --- As one chart a trader/friend out of Luxembourg is captioned this morning "Record loss of wealth, not seen since the 1930's, will impact markets for many years to come." That's the best case. The worst? Markets don't survive...
Yes, this is the part where I urge you to 'flee paper assets' and invest in things that have durable value. Your own solar energy system (I'm working on a design basics ebook, BTW), a garden, and all kinds of non-paper assets that can hedge the future. Lately, one of the better slogans about: "Yah can't eat T-Bills."
Hugo's There The build up of missile firepower by Venezuela has US foreign policy types a little edgy of late. The two ways to read this are (blue pill first): Oh, this is just the US looking out for Venezuela's neighbors who we may not want 'liberated' by a guy who is acting like a latter day Simon Bolivar. (Red pill version): Damn, Venezuela could actual defend their oil resources when we find some excuse to invade there...
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Coping: With Crashing Home Prices Here's another headline to ponder "House price falls during year to end Q1 2009, the world ever" says Global Property Guide.
Readers Writes Try some of these on:
Not to worry, you won't have even any change left, LOL. Next?
Sharpie observation, fer shure. Next?
No. We're all marked. Get it? Why do you think I hide in the East Texas outback? The Day the Earth Barfed Better living through technology: "US firms says handheld ';puke ray' read to go." --- Wonder if it works as well as reading this web site... a sort of linguistic Ipecac...well, whatever. next?
Big Drug Co's Next? Damn fine anticipatory article at the www.MidWestBusiness.com site about how the "World Recession Slowing Down Global Pharmaceutical Market."
Plane Interesting Kid My son - like his old man - seems to be overly prepared when he travels, but as it turns out, that once again paid off on his airplane flight from Seattle to Houston enroute to Tyler up the road a piece.
Seems there was this person on the plane (an hour+ out of Houston's IAH) who went into a severe asthma attack.
As the back end crew asked if there were any medical-types onboard, a retired surgeon and my son volunteered. Since the surgeon was retired and my son really current on EMT procedures, the boy whipped out his ever-present stethoscope, BP cuff, and fingertip pulse oximeter (his favorite diagnostic tool for asthma/breathing issues).
Won't go into the details, so as to avoid privacy issues for patient or airline, but the long and short of it was he got to talk to the company doc from the cockpit and everything came out fine. Plane was cleared for a straight-in and Houston paramedics took over the (by then well controlled) situation on the ground.
There's good news and bad from this, however. While everything came out fine on the medical side, that being back in a cockpit has him back planning to go pick up a pilot's license now. here goes $70 an hour for dual time. Like his helicopter time wasn't spendy enough? --- Still damn proud of the kid. Like the Old Man, he seems to have one of those 'brains that's a sponge' which makes for an interesting life. And a 'better over-prepared than under'.
But even this has it's downside. People look at my resume -- and his too, now -- and say "You're kidding? You've done all that?" Yep...we just don't watch as much TV as most people. Spend way more time aggressively learning. We live the adventure of life hard and fast - his adventures in Amsterdam not included, LOL.
Such a full contact life goes by kinda quick, but the scenery is damn cool along the way and changes often.
Monday June 1, 2009 Web Bot's Diaspora Watch: Off Beyond Biblical A number of people have written - rather impatiently I'd add - asking "Where's the Diaspora you been talking about?" Apparently, some folks don't read anything not written in the American MainStreamMedia (AMSM), since if you did, you might find items like "In Pakistan, an exodus that is beyond biblical" is underway. 85-thousand people a day moving out is like moving the population of Akron, Ohio out of the country every three days...that's what you call 'diaspora' in modern times. It's the re-scattering of humans about. --- Another email that rears up every so often is what? "Is this what you guys were talking about when 'gold and silver floats' in the earlier ALTA reports from www.halfpasthuman.com? " My, aren't we awake for a summer Monday, huh? Well, yeah...but more when the first of the new $10/week ALTA reports comes out ,around the solstice.
However, just looking at prices from Kitco (chart above on the UrbanSurvival site) the price of gold and silver seems to be making good on the forecast of rising commodity prices as "silver posts biggest monthly gain in 22-years; gold rallies" looks to continue on into this new week. --- Something I mentioned to subscribers to my premium service Peoplenomics.com this weekend is that it appears that in my Aggregate Index, the markets have broken out to the upside of one of my major trend lines and a sizable rally today might take out the recent highs, in which case, that 9,600 target before things fall apart may be back in play. I will try to hook up with Robin Landry today and see if the pull-back is done and over for now.
This brings us to the question of how 'inflation" is starting to leak into the financial picture. You saw - I assume you're awaken enough to find your glasses or contacts - that Oil is back near $68 this morning.
I know, I know: "How can we have oil going up, gold and silver going up, and the markets heading up while GM is going into bankruptcy today and while the other bankruptcy "judge has OK'd the sale of most of Chrysler's assets to Fiat?"
You do understand, I hope, that the auto companies aren't going to come back all smiley-faces anytime quick because the US auto market probably shrank about 35% last month.
To get you quickly back up to speed here at the two dynamics to keep firmly in mind when making any financial decisions today:
Sorry for the five-lines-long sentence, but sometimes we have to deal with big concepts, even if it's Monday. You can almost take this to the bank IMHO: The same inflation that saves banksters after they foreclose on folks will also drive up 'asset prices' in a phony sort of way on Wall Street until someone wakes up and says "Hey! Milk's up to $7.50 a gallon - WTF?" But, by then it will be too late and the only place I see worth hiding is by investing in non-paper assets and things which can in and of themselves make economic sense. Buying solar panels which have done down quite a bit on a cost-per-watt basis seem to make sense. (More on that in the 'coping' section.)
Oh, and if my occasional reference to the linguistically identified hyperinflation is a little 'too out there' for you, consider this: Nassim Nicholas Taleb, who wrote the book on statistical outliers (The Black Swan) is apparently tied in with a hedge fund that is betting on hyperinflation, too.
You did see where the head of the World Bank says the stimulus ideas coming out of Washington are nothing more than a 'sugar high' for the economy? Don't need to convince me.
As our occasionally grouchy/raspy Chief Time monk has labeled this the "Year of Transformation" if you think it's been exciting so far this year, the second half promises to drive ever more impressively in the direction of change. It may not be presactly comfortable, but as people in Pakistan are already noticing, the scale of the Transformation gets right up there near biblical in scale.
Sort of like having a front row seat at the end of the 'old ways'. Sometime when you're in a really reflective mood, you might want to read the Wiki entry on the 'fall of civilizations.'
If you're going to lead your family (or whatever retribing/tribal groups
you happen to be a member of) the two books to read are The Collapse of Complex Societies (New Studies in Archaeology)
In case you haven't become highly aware yet - and we can be light here since it's Monday - we got much larger issues than GM and Chrysler coming down the pike. Don't know if the Vegas odds makers have put up odds on it yet, but odds are pretty good that sometime this century a human may actually place the last ever order for fish & chips.
Off Lecturing Chinese Kids GM Going Banko? 14-million (+) Americans out of work. No worries! Tim Geithner still has time (like the Speaker of the House) to blow outta the Beltway for a weekend in Beijing - Geithner has studied Chinese (Mandarin) which makes him a good multilingual bond salesman one would suppose. Tell the Chinese kids (in part):
My advice (not that he's asking): Tell the Chinese kids to read it in the newspaper or online if they can get past the censors and get yourself back to work. There's more than a couple of Americans who think you should be working on something besides selling Treasuries to Chinese kids. You catch this part of the "Good times are just ahead, brother" rework for the New Depression?
Right. And I'm the Pope. See next story.
Street Level Economics: Foreclosures Still Climbing Let's begin with a question from an observant reader:
There are likely a couple of things going on. First, on Friday of this week, the new unemployment numbers will be coming out. What I'm expecting is that while they will be up there may be some decline in the rate of change. It's sort of like the economy has been flushed, but we're now going down less rapidly. And that may help the market, at least it has been momentarily, but yeah, we're still going down as you rightly observe.
The dynamic in play now is that banks and mortgage holders don't have any particular incentive to ramp up the foreclosures any more. You see, from the California experience, they're figuring out that if they kick people out of their homes, even if they are late on payments, the pool turns to an algae mess, and then along come the house-strippers who take out whatever of value they can when the cops aren't looking and/or the neighbors aren't home.
Seems what many mortgage companies are doing is trying to work out partial payments in order to keep loans from going into the 'non-performing category. But if there's a slow-down in foreclosures, it's not apparent in the actual industry-wide numbers which were summaries last week by the Mortgage Bankers Association this way under the headline "Delinquencies and Foreclosures Continue to Climb in Latest MBA National Delinquency Survey..."
So, is the rate going up? Yes. Might you be seeing a lull? Sure. Think it will last/turn around here? Nope, sorry. You may have snoozed through the 'pocket effect' difference I outlined above. As credit card companies drop credit limits, and and more people won't be able to make ends meet, such that by fall, the flushing oughta be picking up speed, prodded on by the derivatives collapse starting late summer and commercial real estate tubing. But hey! That's doesn't mean we shouldn't party like it's 1999, does it?
Rolling Them Numbers New Personal Income and Expense Numbers are out this morning from the Bureau of Economic Analysis:
Wonder how much of the 'gain' was due to people being liberated from the bother of house payments?
since the whole economy is built on debt, the drop in personal consumption expenditures will reduced the Fed's Consumer Debt (they call it 'credit') numbers when they come out Friday afternoon. So with Jobs on Friday and the Fed report, that might be an interesting day to play volatility spreads.
War's Cooking Department SecDef Gates figures that the North Koreans doing nuke testing foretells a 'dark future'.
And, as part of the lead-up/lead-in/prepping for the bombing of Iran this fall, Israel is holding its biggest-ever games drill. Lots of public participation can be expected. I reckon this means the clock may tick a bit faster, but still late October, we hear.
Flu Perking Economic restrictions on travel are still to come this fall// winter when the hybrid flu makes its (meaner and nastier) return. The BBC reports that three more students at upper crust Eton College have been diagnosed with the stuff. And, one of our reader's who's well connected with the 'no really poor' set advises:
Yeah - agree - it will be curious if the uppers and PTB's get disconvenienced by this.
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Coping: With Solar & Hydroponics Being Cheap... I may have lucked into (although I'd never admit to luck, as such) another great investment. My solar power system.
My little 1.7 kW solar operation may be doubled this year since it's working out so well and has reduced our energy purchased from the local electric company here in East Texas by almost 50% which I figure at current rates saves over $100/month - and we're not even into the high sun/high air conditioning load time of the year yet.
This is something anyone with a home can invest in - just like small-scale home hydroponics even if you live in an apartment....
New Book on Small-Footprint Home Hydroponics Fresh out this morning is JB Slear's new 25-page e-book called "MyGroPonics" which is really kinda neat. For just $10-bucks, you can order and download the end result of JB's grubbing around his local dollar stores and come up with your own variations on growing hydroponically - at home - using readily available parts and at a very low cost. Bad back? This is for you. Want fresh veggies which has not been tainted in the fields? Why, here's your answer. After helping JB with the writing, I'm putting my own MyGrowPonic system together, too. That's 'cuz our regular garden this year turned into fire-ant food...although we'll soon be trying to repell them with tea tree oil, but that's another rant. Needless to say, if youi can grow 18-heads of leafy lettuce in just over a square foot of floor space, this is a really neat home project which works for condo and apartment dwellers (*depending on management or the condo Nazis, of course...). Interested? $10-bucks, right here...
Around the Ranch: Practical Prodigal? My EMT son from Seattle, George II shows up at the ranch today. You know a kid's grown up a bit when he prefers to be picked up from the airport in the pick-em-up-truck instead of the Porsche 930 which doesn't have as cold air conditioning. Yup, starting to get sensible - dangerous way of thinking, LOL. The nut falls not far from the tree...
--- Send lunatic fringe rants, ufo reports, thousand dollar bills, and huckleberry pies to george@ure.net --- end snip and save section ---
Peoplenomics Time to Kill the Advertising Industry Want to do something revolutionary? Which if done at one fell swoop would reduce pollution, dramatically reduce crime of many sorts, and at the same time would defuse the mass consumption paradigm while reducing the public susceptibility to political jingoism and persuasion group manipulation. You see, the truth of the matter is that excess consumption and shoddy products is at the core of today's business paradigm. It's why Detroit hasn't turned out the 'million mile car' yet, but Kenworth (PACCAR) builds that level of quality into trucks every day. It's why car styles change from year-to-year in order to hype 'novelty' and 'position' since 4-wheels and a motor has been around more than a hundred years. So pour a fresh cuppa Joe and let's get real about this...starting with...
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Maxa-Cookie Manager Maxa-Tools has provided us with a free demo - which you're welcome to try - of their dandy cookie manager tool that I use here on all my computers. It shows both the browser-specific and the newer browser-independent cookies. Quite happy with it.
Here's the download link for the free demo:
www.urbansurvival.com/setupMCMstdGU.exe
Spread the Word 'bout UrbanSurvival! UrbanSurvival just keeps getting more popular - thanks to your help. (Oh, sure, sometimes because we tell you the news before it happens and because my economic analysis has been better than 99% of the PowersThatBe who obviously don't get it; but let's not go into chest-pounding mode...) So don't stop now. Tell all your friends to wander on by for an uncommon mixture of relevant & real economics, humor such as it is, preparedness, all served up with the occasional side order of ...well, weird. Click here for a tool that may help. (It'll pop up an email window if youi use Outlook (or a few other email programs) then simply send a link to everyone on your distro list...
"Live on $10,000" Updated What? You haven't ordered the ebook "How to Live on $10,000 a year -- or less"? Suit yourself. We're all going to live it shortly, anyway. I just thought you might like a heads up by reading about how to do it before you get pink-slipped. But, suit yourself OR visit www.liveontenthousand.com or, click one of the following button:
Yep - still possible. I also took a bit of additional material that was pertinent from recent issues of Peoplenomics and included them. The whole thing runs about 65 pages, but it gives you a vision of how to not only live on the aforementioned dollar amount, but also how to migrate up the economic foodchain if you make a little more than that and do some active savings... Click here for the page with more details on it. ---- Last week's report is here. For back issues of this site, click here. (Goes back to 1997!)
Here's the latest from www.opencongress.org on the House bill which would let workers inside the District of Columbia work income tax free!
Before the chart, a little background: Once upon a time, a long while ago, I observed during my quest for 'truth' in economics, that the PowersThatBe, the talking heads on the teeve, and the other information sources that actively engage in the programming of humans not to think, had conveniently swept several trillions of dollars that disappeared in the Internet Bubble's bursting (since spring 2000) under the rug. Surely, it wasn't unnoticed by the thousands of people who called brokers and said "Where is my money?" "Gone, but hang in there as you're a long term investor!" was about all they heard back.
So one of our charts for Peoplenomics subscribers oughta be widely circulated - it shows that if you line up the peak of the Dow in January 2000 with the peak in early September of 1929, we're on a very very close replay track. Much closer than even the chart shows if you were to back out inflation, and put in the effects of 1929 deflation, but that'd be real work, and I'm sort of lazy if the truth be told.
No, it's not a perfect replay of 1929, but history doesn't repeat exactly, it only rhymes. So think of this as the rhymes and the crimes chart:
"George, that's only a coincidence!" your monkey-mind will protest.
Why sure it is...you bet. A 9½ year long coincidence...yessir....just a coincidence, I'm sure...
Write when you get rich,
George Ure, The People's Economist |
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This is a Free Financial News and economic information site updated daily except Sundays. If you can not get to www.urbansurvival.com from your corpgov workstation, please try our mirror site: www.independencejournal.com . This site is also available at www2.urbansurvival.com and www3.urbansurvival.com which may not be blocked. · Bulletins are posted as our work schedule permits and as events warrant. · I try to publish Monday-Saturday by 8 AM Central Time/ 9 AM Eastern with 7:55 Central pretty normal. If you're easily offended by the occasional typo, then check about 8:15 Central we usually proofread and spell check after the first post. We've had some amusing typos in the past... Sometimes a Saturday issue will be dropped due to projects & chores on our ranch. · Financial and news judgments of the publisher are not to be considered "advice" · Please read and understand our disclaimer · All original content (C) 2008 by George A. Ure except sources as linked. Very short extracts are occasionally used under 'fair use' but never entire articles without permission. That would be beyond 'fair use'. · Copyright of all linked articles is cited under fair use as this is a topic specific site (long wave economics and humanistic economics, which we call "Peoplenomics"
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