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Published Monday through Friday about 8 AM Central Time Except Holidays Depending on my mood...
Updated:
Monday February
16, 2009
07:55 CDT
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G7 At Wrong End of the Stick OK, here we are on Saturday morning and although I have vowed that at some point, I'll stop doing these 6th day reports, I am compelled by news events to mount the soap box for a moment or two since the coffee has kicked in early, and tell you what a dismal failure the G-7 meetings in Rome are.
Before I do that, a couple of demonstrably true items to munch on:
So what do I mean when I say the G-7 is pushing on the 'wrong end of the stick'?
here's a headline that infuriates me: "G7 nations vow to avoid protectionism". This is the intellectual equivalent of noticing that a house is on fire and calling for a pizza instead of dialing 9-1-1. Stoopid.
What's really going on, with Happy Geithner and Easy Ben's handiwork is they are trying to 'get back to where we were'. The popular delusion being that we have have a pain-free Depression if we just print enough (fiat) money. Well, hate to break the news to anyone, but we aren't going back to where we were because it was a lie based on excessive speculation and excessive leverage. Thus, the only way to 'get back there' will be to out lever and out print even our previous excesses. Want another pisser of a headline? "G-7 vows to restore Confidence in Markets, Economy." Oh frigging dandy!
As I see it - and I'm a simpleton compared with the formulaic sorcerers - it's very simple: Planet #3 needs to get into sustainable mode. But sorcerers are sleight of hand types, while magicians deal with reality.;
Reality is that the global blinded by profit business model needs serious revamping because growth is at the edge of the global Petri dish. If we insist on 'eating the agar' faster than Ma Nature can replenish it using solar energy/photosynthesis, there will be a die-off of the global bacterium. That means humans.
A goodly number of the 'powers-that-be' already have their exit plans in place, and no, there's not enough in all the world's seed vaults to keep, not to mention restart, the whole planet on the other side of the die-off.
Don't mean to be so glum at this hour, but that's just part of what's in Peoplenomics this weekend. If 2012 was going to be just a single threat time-span - like a Planet X, or something - it would be easy enough. But what's coming is the end of the line at almost every level imaginable: Food, fresh water, global warming/cooling, volcanism, financial nonlinearities, machine intelligence...it all falls into the big stew pot.
What's even more amazing to me is that folks like me - who write about the approaching period of nonlinear everything get branded as "survivalists". yet when government spends billions on "Continuity of Government" plans it's somehow prudent and we should all save the people who don't listen to the folks in the home district, none of whom I've found that actually wanted to bailout the current crop of fat-cat bankers. --- Don't me to sound grouchy on a nice weekend morning like this, it's just that the alignment between the sovereign citizen and the supposedly elected, although purchased may be more accurate, government needs a bit more attention.
When Happy Geithner talks about getting us back to where we were, it's like buying an alcoholic a bottle of booze.
Since we're in nonlinear socioeconomics, there's a grand rush to rubber stamp everything, and as GOP leader Boehner points out from the floor, NOT ONE MEMBER OF CONGRESS HAS READ THE NEARLY TRILLION DOLLAR SPENDING BILL in its entirety.
As luck would have it, I'm not the only one that has noticed that US federal obligations now exceed the world's Gross Product. Jerome Corsi writes about it at WorldNetDaily, too. --- After the market close on Friday, we had another round of bank failures, although these are repackaged as shotgun marriages to other banks in most cases. Lemme see:
Glad Happy and Ben have saved us from a Depression. Why, without their efforts, we'd have soaring unemployment and banks failing all over the country.
Say, Maybe Happy and Ben can fix Lloyds Bank in the UK, while they're printing away....a bankeresque Lend-lease Program maybe?
So it is that the G-7 and the Fed and the Treasury, and all the other proxies of the PowersThatBe continue to miss a simple fact: When the growth-oriented business models fail at the limits of resource, there needs to be a disincentive to play the growth game and new incentives to get sustainable. Until that fundamental change of thinking happens and is translated into business models, product development, marketing, and ultimately embedded in the consumer, the lemmings will continue to be led to the cliff which, in case you have only been looking at the back of the lemming in front of you, is actually pretty close now.
But that's been obvious since the 1976 Limits to Growth report from the Club of Rome. Nothing like hiding the agenda in plain sight, huh? ---- I'll flip you for the last ever order of fish & chips? It'll cost millions, thanks to the incipient inflation coming thanks to the print party to paper over reality 'One 'Mo Time"...
Mechanics of Spin, Redux When I did our first survey of news articles on use of the word 'bailout' versus 'rescue', we saw bailout used in 82% of news stories and then it dropped over many months until 'bailout' was used only 40-odd percent of the time while 'rescue' was used a tad over 60% of the time. Just wanted to show you how media owners direct social thinking.
On Google this morning, 'bailout' gets 112,241 hits while 'rescue' gets 138,350. That's 250,591 which means 'bailout' is running 44.8% use. No worries for the PTB/media controllers until bailout gets up to 60%, then they will have to 're-crisis' us into another way of thinking about things.
Crowning Glory Filed under "Do as we say, not as we do": "The Prince of hypocrites: Charles embarks on 16,000 mile 'green' crusade... aboard a private jet." Maybe he and Al Gore could ride-share?
Sirius Stuff Bankruptcy coming next week possibly for Sirius/XM.
'Summer of Hell' Prequel "Proving murder in case of wildfire arson difficult", comes out of Australia's arrest of a suspected arsonist.
But wait! Here's an Australian reader who's not buying it...
A sort of Crowning glory, don'tcha think? Right hot buttons (child porn or 'terrorism') and everything gets soooo easy to spin.
Dancing Mountains You have been watching the earthquake swarms in Indonesia and Puerto Rico, I hope?
Curious Timing The crash of the Colgan/Continental flight continues under investigation in New York with the flight data recorders recovered from the airliner's tail section.
Not likely connected, but a curious dot worth noting: The FAA notice to be alert to falling satellite debris from that collision over Siberia between a Russian Kosmos craft and Iridium 33.
Around the Ranch: Weekend Warrioring Just another relaxing day around the ranch. Finish putting in engineered flooring in the kitchen and whatever-it-is room, change oil on the Daewoo and fine out why it's dropping power steering fluid - hazards of driving a care with 120,000 on it, I 'spose, install new blades on mower for the season, another oil change there. If the wind stays down and the rain holds off, burn out the garden and get it ready for tilling. Process a couple of new Peoplenomics subscribers. Plus the usual vacuuming, Windexing, dusting, data entry, client billing, working a bit on taxes, and maybe barbequing.
If all that gets done (it likely won't) then the tractor bucket needs greasing (10-grease fittings every 10-hours of use), got to move some of the electric fencing on one of the goat pasture, the one we call "Electric Avenue", and maybe then I will be able to sneak in some tinkering with some ham radio software (W1HKJ's NBEMS) which seems very worthwhile and comes highly recommended. And then there's more work to do on this weekend's Peoplenomics report - a survey of what's out there as a threat matrix for 2012.
There are times I'd like to have a hobby, get back into sailing, do some fishing, and what have you, but I just don't know where I'd be able to put it - there are so many things to do around here that all have to get done - the to-do list is always about 10-miles long. One item goes off the list and three more come on to take its place.
Anyway, not to whine, you've probably got a similar list of things to do. If you've got a better way to get through life than keeping to-do lists, I'm sure my other reader would like to know about it, too, because the only way I can keep my to-do list manageable is by either hiding the pen or burning the paper. Some days, it's a pretty good-sized blaze.
See you Monday. Same guy, longer list...
Barter and Future Exchange
A number of readers have asked for some discussion of whether
'barter systems' will replace "money" as the economic washes up on
the rocks of economic history over the next couple of years. I
sincerely wish the complex future could be reduced to a single
concept, like barter, but it can't. Instead, we'll all face a
tapestry of exchange mechanisms - probably quite
different from what we're used to in the current economy - which
will be driven by major fundamental shifts in underlying values
at a societal level. What's clear from a read of Dmitri
Orlov's
Reinventing Collapse: The Soviet Example and American Prospects
More For Subscribers Subscription Information
What is better
than a Why, sending an email to everyone in your 'contact' file and tell them about www.urbansurvival.com of course!
"Live on $10,000" Updated What? You haven't ordered the ebook "How to Live on $10,000 a year -- or less"? Suit yourself. We're all going to live it shortly, anyway. I just thought you might like a heads up by reading about how to do it before you get pink-slipped. But, suit yourself OR visit www.liveontenthousand.com or, click one of the following button:
Yep - still possible. I also took a bit of additional material that was pertinent from recent issues of Peoplenomics and included them. The whole thing runs about 65 pages, but it gives you a vision of how to not only live on the aforementioned dollar amount, but also how to migrate up the economic foodchain if you make a little more than that and do some active savings... Click here for the page with more details on it. ---- Last week's report is here. For back issues of this site, click here. (Goes back to 1997!)
Friday February 13, 2009 Stim-you-less Vote, Et Al Although there is some money for housing bailouts, the best of the Obama stimulus bill is far more contentious as it comes up for a vote today. Still, the very mention that there might be something in it for reg'lar folks was enough to pimp up the Dow which had been staring as a triple digit loss. Funny of that works, isn't it? The thing to keep an eye on today is what the Dow does after this latest yoke of taxation is mounted on the taxpayers....
As one headline asks: "Will the stimulus actually stimulate? Economists say no..." And I'd judge they're right.
While the pork and print debate continues in Washington, --- Meantime, the nomination of republicorp senator Judd Gregg to head up the Commerce Department has been dashed on the rocks of politics. Seems there was too much difference on fundamental perspectives for this reach-across-the-aisle to work out. --- Meantime, be sure to notice that "U.S. farm income to drop 20 percent in 2009". Why? With prices falling, farmers have less incentive to plant and that could turn into one of the drivers for much, much higher food prices before summer is out. That, and of course the continuing drought issues. Be sure to pay attention to the drought map (updated) in California's vegetable basket valleys. Or the drought emergent over South Carolina. --- With farm income down, do you think there's any connection with the headline that "D'oh! Caterpillar CEO Contradicts President on Whether Stimulus Will Allow Him to Re-Hire Laid Off Workers"? I mean like, weak farm sales might mean more layoffs before rehiring starts? --- UIniversity of Michigan consumer sentiment figures due out about 10 AM Eastern. --- Futures - when I looked - down a tad...one week from now comes options expiration. Triskawhataphobia?
Summer of Hell Comes Early Although the US, say the predictive linguistics, is expected to face its own 'summer of hell' with shortages, soaring prices for necessary goods, and maybe drought here of some proportion, the 'summer of hell' is already visiting Australia with the wildfires. One man has already been charged with setting one of the wildfires there, but authorities are blocking the release of his identity. So, after all the hype of 'terrorism' you might want to start up a pool at the office whether when his name/background ijs eventually released, it will have anything to do with jihad, or the guys just a regular arsonist... I'll put in a dime on no jihad link... --- On the other hand, a suicide bomber of that stripe has killed 30 people on an Iraqi pilgrimage route. --- In Gaza, "Rival Palestinian factions meet for unity talks." Such talks are always interesting studies in human/power dynamics as one pressure argues for "The enemy of my enemy is my friend" versus "I want to be in charge/have power/etc..."
Latter Day Colonialists Can't help but notice that Sri Lanka accuses Britain of meddling in its internal affairs after Gordon (the gold seller) Brown appointed a special envoy to the country just as the Sri Lankan army is about to wind up the Tamil Tigers campaign. --- Say, no chance that Brown's trying to whip up a little war on terror for the cits of the Brits do yah? You know, a little war/foreign intrigue to get the public focus off the imploding British economy; that sort of thing? Naw... but just in case, I'm writing from atop a soap box so as not to run afoul the illusion of freedom in the Isles...
Commuter Crash Icing is suspect in the crash of a commuter plane that killed 48 (or 49) in upstate New York overnight.
Did You Happen to Notice... As long as we're on crashes and such: That the Iridium satellite that smacked into a Russian spy satellite (Kosmos 2251) was Iridium # 33? Needless to say, more than one reader has taken this possibly fraternalistically significant number and connected dots which may (or may not) be there. But, like we say around the old time monastery: "What are the odds?" Oh, 100% this week, anyway.....
Could it lead to war with Russia as some speculate in that direction? Naw. We're imploding just fine on our own, thanks. Hey! That reminds me about this week's cartoon!
--- snip and save section --- Coping: RV Dreams, Huh? You may remember earlier this week when Decider Lite was off visiting Elkhart, I asked our artists to come up with a cartoon that would capture the reality of life in RV sales these days...
Courtesy www.rebeccaprice.com, Our lady of graphics...
One place you might want to visit: Wal-Mart which has many places with RV hook-ups so that people can drive the RV over, load up on groceries, and ice, and beer , and....before heading out. Except with the way 401(k)'s are going, the 'heading out' might be distilled down to a trip around the block. When Wal-Mart ads a mailbox set-up, I'll let you know.
Thoughts on Microsoft Going Retail Well, what have we here? Microsoft to move into retail says a story in The Wall Street Journal today. --- We begin the analysis of the story with some linguistic background, so you know where the word "retail" came from. In case it's been so long since school, or you never learned it, back in medieval times, French and other woodcutters of Europe would go off into the woods and bring down trees for firewood and construction. The logs were whacked into lengths from four to 12 feet. The process was called (roughly into modern English) "tailing".
But the firewood cutters who felled trees didn't whack things up into small sections and bring them into town...specialization of labor was already setting in. So, one of the cottage industries (quite literally) that came along were workers who went out to the woods with carts and draught animals, and bought up the long pieces felled by the tree whackers.
These were loaded onto carts and either cut before loading, or once back in town in front of a customer's home/hut/hovel/shack/shanty/lean-to and smaller hunks were cut - re-tailing the wood.
So that's a little background about 'tailing' and 'retailing'. --- All of which sets the stage for me to ask a very important question: The key concept behind retailing is that it's how a frequently consumed, must be replaced item gets sold. In the case of Starbucks, just to pick a large retailer, people get hooked on coffee so they keep going back for more. In the case of Kroger's and Safeway, or locally Brookshire Brothers here in East Texas, it's pretty obvious why retail food stores work, isn't it. And, in the case of Apple's iPod stores, part of the deal there is that people are going in for music which is the whole iTunes thing.
With my consultant hat on, I'm sitting back asking "What's the reason to go into a Microsoft retail store more than once? I mean, OK to see the games and all, but to spend time learning about Microsoft 7? To ;sample the 31-flavors of operating systems? Hahaha...gimme a break!
Better strategic move, IMHO? Microsoft should put "The Microsoft Channel" up on airline video systems so that people can get product training in the sky. THAT's a much better use of resource as I see it...especially if it were tied in to a POS ordering system using the new sky-fi systems being tried by American and others as an order fulfillment back-channel. You with me on this? A combination of product teaching and application notes in a kind of "Today Show" format.
Just for example, I had a client tell me recently that he didn't want to upgrade to Office 2007 because it 'saved spreadsheets in a different format'. While true, I explained how the 'save as' function was available so he could save his spreadsheets in the traditional .xls format (Excel 97-2003) instead of the .xlsx format. Why am I having to explain this? A short segment either in the sky, or on satellite TV - how about both? - would go much further at solidifying the product position, especially if segments were color-coded so that basic, intermediate, and advanced needs were served?
Just a simple example of a segment: How many people know that in most Microsoft Office aps, you can hold down the 'control' button on your keyboard and roll your scrolling mouse button to zoom in (or zoom out) on a document that's too small to read comfortably? That's what I'm talking about. Or, how to use the rules in Outlook to sort mail like I do, so that low priority goes one place, client mail another, news tips somewhere else?
This is all so obvious to me. So when I read about Microsoft opening up even a small number of retail stores I ask myself: Is this the right solution? Doesn't it fly in the face of the whole mobile computing paradigm which is what?
Location independence.
That, say my friends at IBM, is the core concept behind 'cloud' computing, too.... --- This all gets me off on a huge rant - which I should turn into a book one of these days. It has to do with the fact that education - how we learn - has not been conceptualized correctly in either the corporate training world or in the more formal collegiate/academic world.
If you step back a ways, you'll see that there is a definite trend to short-form learning. The kind of thing where people want to buy short form knowledge and then get on with life. Which is why so-called 'distance education' programs make sense and have been the core of growth in many higher ed settings. It's also why there are so many "For Dummies" books out there.
There popular delusion, it seems, was best captured in a paper by Andrew Odlyzko when he was still at AT&T Research Labs back in 2001. The paper is "Content is not king" is an absolute must-read if you're going to get the historic context of a lot of what goes on in today's world right; in particular the marketing battles. He correctly noted that the core use of the internet would likely be personal and business communications - a good prediction from 2001, indeed.
What I see, reading Odlyzko and others, is that people instinctively are drawn to the most efficient channel to get something done. Which is why texting and SMS has been such a hit.
So, while companies can offer great books and manuals on how to do this, or that, a simple 5-minute YouTube video works because it's a distillation of knowledge. Since we live in a world where most of us get compensated for what we do, not what we know, the key thing is to get right to what I call the "Do-How" of something and skip all the background stuff that fills up books.
I can't tell you how many books I have read that start with a simple concept (say a particular business mode, approach to statistics, or whatever) that lay out a single core concept and then spent 12-chapters embellishing on that thought. Who needs it?
If you work in Microsoft, or know anyone in their marketing department, you might ask them to explain how a venture into brick and mortar squares up with 'location independence', and how many people are going to go hang around a computer store.
Rather that 'go Circuit City' at least a more viable concept would be for someone in Bill's shop to call Howie Schulz over at Starbucks and say "Wanna talk about a meaningful joint venture in some retail stores?" At least people have a reason to keep going back to Starbucks.
A poppy-seed muffin, split shot Americano tall and a Microsoft training kiosk - especially one with an education shell program used so I can get some kind of business-user certification after x-credits of 10-minute sessions is a lot more powerful concept that sterile retailing. But that's just me, I guess...Schulz has extra capacity and MSFT wants a public face. A match with a sprinkle on top.
OMG let me get my consulting hat off - I give too much away.
Readers Writes Here's one worth noting:
I've had a number of people ask me recently - some in state pension funds, although not in California - "What would George do?"
It really boils down to what your vision of the future is. If you think there's a fair chance that part of the West Antarctic Ice Shelf (WAIS) could slide into the ocean in the next couple of years due to global warming, and if you're at sea level or in a state which is mostly sea level, then I guess an exit to higher ground would make sense.
Or, if you think 2012 will bring either a poll shift, massive volcanism, or fill in the blanks, then yeah, take the money and get to whatever your research says will be a better place to be.
This weekend, in Peoplenomics, we'll be going over a 2012 threat matrix, by the way, and we'll be getting into a lot more detail about the race to the death going on between singularity believers on the one hand and doomsters on the other.
The other part of the equation is your outlook on personal independence. If you can take your pension money and get yourself into a sustainable lifestyle, then fine. Yes, you'd have to pay penalties and what-have-you, but you have no idea how well I have slept for the past 20-years or so, not ever having a thought about some bankster coming to repo the roof over my head. I'm convinced that one of the Big Secrets of a long life is getting as stress-free as you can and maintaining that kind of lifestyle. When the inner self and the outer self are aligned, there's just a lot less reason for your body to express conflict via illness.
If I could get to a sustainable position by cashing out - and if that was important to me and congruent with my expectations for the future, I'd do it. But, if the amount of money wouldn't set me up pretty well, then I'd have to rethink it.
In the end, as the chief time monk reminded me just yesterday, there's an old Swedish saying that "the skein of your life is woven from the moment of your birth..." so the right & wrong of how this life works out is going to be what its going to be., --- Damn few people really pay attention to how their life directly interacts with Universe (God). Every time you get a synch-wink (where Universe synchronistic ally 'winks' at you in some way, you could make a note of such occurrences. In that way, you can become more aware of how Universe 'talks' to you. Or, maybe 'dances' is a better way of putting it. --- I went through a lot of meditation time while I had the flu last week, trying to figure out if I should put a personalized license plate on the 930. I thought this way and that about it. Gee, it would sure be cool to have a personalized Texas plate that said "TRBOTX", for example. But that was $40 a year...and would that be worth it? No, I decided, better uses for the money, like the local food bank.
Then I went through the process of figuring out whether to put a ham radio license plate on the car. That's only a couple of bucks. But I got to thinking, why would I do that? Doesn't a screaming red Porsche draw enough attention? The pondering continued for hours....
So finally, this week when I went down to get the plates, having decided not to do anything special and just go with regular plates in whatever order came up. Thought "It will probably be some ugly, hard-to-remember plate, but at least no extra money is involved, Universe will handle this decision - no reason for me to worry about it.
And the plates I got? PWR 200. Not bad - 'power 200' is really easy remember, looks OK on a 930, and I had to nod to Universe that PWR is a fine prefix indeed. Not sure what it means, but I expect at some point it will become clear, as more entries go into my "Universe talks to you" log. --- All of which is perhaps a poor illustration of 'the dance', but it's how people can operate if they choose: Becoming - as best they can - in harmony with what the Universe is doing for them.
If in your heart-of-hearts the quest for independence and self-reliance is high, then cash in the 401(k) or state pension and have fun on your next adventure. On the other hand, if there's fear and trepidation or it simply doesn't feel like it flows right then DON'T DO IT.
The key point of life is learning to dance, not any one particular step or cha-cha along the way. Just becoming aware that there's a dance going on.
Life in harmony with the dance instructor (Universe) - or as best you can do - is amazing. I don't think there's a day that I don't get up, full of energy and anticipation at what the day will bring. Why? Because I have slowly developed an appreciation that Life is a dance of co creation and that as we believe, so we tend to receive.
The Universe is going to provide everything you need for this class called Life, whether you like it, or not. If you harbor feelings of scarcity and suffering, then no doubt that's what you'll call into your life. If, on the the other hand, you have an 'abundant Universe' and 'happy dance instructor' framework, it seems you can end up with whatever you hold dear. The Plato Allegory of the Cave is a fine metaphor, except it doesn't give much detail about how to work with those archetypes that project outward onto the cave walls in front of us. --- Granted, that's not a straightforward answer to the "Do I take it, or do I not?" question. But it's the best I can do. I ain't your guru and I have no idea what kind of weaving you're doing with your own skein. I have personally found that time spent figuring out my own dance with Universe has been very well-spent.
So weave what makes you happy and helps others along the way. I think that's as good as it gets...Life's real treasures are memories and the true measure of wealth is what you're able to 'bank' in your heart and between your ears. Paper's just a way to get there for those of us who are learning the dance. --- Send snip and save items to george@ure.net --- end snip and save section ---
Thursday February 12, 2009 If you Think It's Been Bad So Far... You ain't seen nothing yet...at least that's what a number of data points seem to be suggesting. This could be the beginning of the 'perfect storm' in economic terms. Some of the points I'm watching and pondering:
America right now is 6% of the world's population consuming 25% of output. Goods, food, energy, and what have you. The Year of Transformation is all about getting back to where we are 5% consuming 6% and the only way to get to that will be massive economic displacement that is going to bankrupt a lot of businesses that don't understand - or whose business models will not work as sustainable models - and so the collapse will continue inb step-wise fashion until we get there.
In the meantime, if your 401(k) or state retirement program is not compatible with a much smaller (but sustainable) economy, you might want to think about how you could reposition or redeploy assets into areas which are at least candidates to become sustainable. Farming and basics of life, just for instance.
And if all of these data points don't convince youi that things are not yet "bad", consider this: The Dow futures are down today and my read of the charts seems to suggest that a challenge to the 7800 Dow level could be on. Today or tomorrow, maybe.
And oh yeah, tomorrow's Friday the 13th.
Retailing Happy-Talk: Is Anything Sinking In? One way to tell how much of the fundamental change in paradigms is really 'sinking in' would be to look at Retail Sales. Logically, if people were 'getting it' there might be some decline in retail as people cut back, do a little belt-tightening, and try to save a few pennies now for what could be rougher times ahead. So with that as the intro, here's the retail sales report out this morning:
Just another example (we can do one of these every day...) of how 'happy-talk' media reports things: Most are saying retail up 1%. BUT if you take the government numbers for January of this year, 344,649-million and divide by January a year ago, 381,673, you'll see that retail is down 10% year-on-year...but it's even worse because you can add in what? 5% inflation, so it's really down 14-15% year-on-year? Shot of el Don, please....who are these finance writers so devoid of numeracy? Can't blame the Obama change artists for this one - still leftovers from the republicorps. Anyone hear from George Bush lately? ==== If you thought that the stimulus bill would do something for retailers? Think again says a Forbes article.
The Return of Train Robbers "Return with us now to those thrilling days of yesteryear...." Bandits are targeting trains in out-of-the-way parts of New Mexico. Strategic planning problems for the robbers? What's worth stealing anymore? Prices of things we don't need are in collapse mode...
Ground Control to Major Tom From the "Where's the traffic cops when you need them" department: "Scientists eye debris after satellite collision." And, since it happened over Siberia, I wonder which insurance company will get the bill? LOL, of course that begs the question: Accident or something else?
Missing Computers The headline is scary: "67 computers missing from nuclear weapons lab" but the fine print says there's not anything classified missing - personal information and such, but nothing classified as in drop by Pantex for parts.
On the other hand, what would I expect officials to say.....hmmmmm...
New Electrics, Old Madness We see that there's $300-million of dough in the new "stimulus" (I call it that with as close to a straight face as I can muster) for 'green vehicles'. Um...don't want to be the one to say that electric vehicles take infrastructure and with the droughts about there's not likely to be much excess cheap electricity to power these things and maybe not enough infrastructure...but maybe this will make jobs; just no telling yet. --- Speaking of vehicles, here's an interesting email:
Oh yeah, real as it gets...While I've been writing about it on this site since 1995, I can't help but note that futurists are picking up on it, too. You saw where Gerald Celente is saying it will be worse than the Great Depression of the 1930's?
--- snip and save section ---
Coping: Thing Go Better Department The report out of India that "India to launch cow urine as soft drink" A quote from the UK's Times online makes a little more sense if you know that in the UK, marketing is often focused around a 'unique selling proposition' - or USP for short. Given that little bit of background, read on:
Still, count me skeptical: the secret ingredients aside, this story makes a little high fructose corn syrup, phosphoric acid, caffeine and whatever else is in cola products sound positively delicious in comparison. Wonder if Coke is pissed? LOL. Is this marketing gone udderly (sic) crazy? --- Speaking of food and drink:
"Lawmakers delay vote on bill charging obese employees more for healthcare" in South Carolina. Wonder if they went out to dinner to talk about it?
Who's Got Money? "Las Vegas Tourism: Drop in visitors accelerated toward end of 2008" says a report. I never understood why people would go to a casino to gamble, anyway. I mean, if it's gambling you like, open up an online trading account or get hold of my commodities guy. No point going through airport searches and bumpy airplane rides if all you want to do is take on Fate...and there's got to be somewhere closer to take your spouse out for dinner without dishes to wash after...
Watch Meat, Food Prices Over in the Texas Hill country - and out south and west of there, and even down toward Corpus, there's been a developing drought that looks to be the worst in over 100-years. Last week's drought monitor report will be updated later on today here, but if you look at last week's you can see the problem:
If you haven't been working on getting a garden in yet, let me again remind you that the money spent on a garden could be the best possible investment you could make this year. Look at the fires in Australia and then read how China farmers struggling under severe drought. Now, what happens if the US has a change in weather patterns that causes a drop out of the square states and the corn belt? I'm telling you right now that food is a huge problem are later this year and even beyond the fact that famine is what turns recessions into depressions, you need to be thinking about self-sufficiency while you still have options. Not to be too preachy about it, but ignore this advise at your own peril.
Skeptical of this site? Go read "Catastrophic fall in 2009 global food production" and get back to me. --- A lot of readers are putting in gardens:
Another one to check out: SPIN Farming's site.
Readers Writes Here's one:
Naw...not even near done, yet. I'm sure they will figure up another BOHICA. Have faith. As my consigliore said: "The way depressions work is economists will try everything in their toolkit first..." There's still a lot more to try...like install anti-protectionist legislation so the super-rich can keep exploiting lesser paid workers... --- Send snip and save items to george@ure.net --- end snip and save section ---
Wednesday February 11, 2009 Remember the "Crash Warning"? Why, it seems like just yesterday morning I was telling you that since Robin Landry put out his "crash warning" based on his proprietary indicators 'rolling over' the market could tank any old time, yet it could stretch out another week because next week is options expiration. And then along comes yesterday's nearly 400-point drop in the Dow. Surprised? Not even slightly.....
Here's why: I understand bits and pieces of how Landry's system works. It is specifically not a day trader deal: It's a longer term system which he's spent about 30-years developing and fine-tuning. So, when he comes out with a "crash warning" I take it seriously, pass it on, and then sit back and wait.
If you want to look it up, the warning of the current decline was posted here waaaay back on January 14 at 10:50AM. While we were sitting around waiting for the decline to begin I talked to Landry on January 21st:
Now here's the part that tests anyone who has a pretty good system of seeing longer market direction: Waiting around for the expected outcome. That's where being extremely patient and not chasing a number comes into play.
So, as trading gets under way today, there's likely to be a bounce at some point (the open maybe since futures are up a tad), but the next tests will be that close under 7,859 - which may be easily done since the Dow penetrated 7,849 yesterday.
After that, the next test ought to be around 7,400, and once that fails, a trip down to the 6,000's and maybe under that.
Please don't take me as a pessimist, though. Ups and downs are part of any market. And, once we get down to whatever this bottom is going to be, there's a fair chance of a barn-burner smoker of a rally which should propel the Dow back up to nearly 10,000....and maybe even above. I'm still throwing darts at how I will play this one: Will I wade into the double Dow tracking fund? Or, stay on the commodity side and buy up oil call options? Gold and silver call options oughta pay off well in the period. Geez...so many ways to make money, I can hardly count them!
Once there, however, and I'm thinking August-ish, then it will be time to 'load the boat' on shorts. Reason? If this really is the culmination of the much written-about Super Cycle Peak, then the ultimate target for the Dow would be down to levels not seen since the 1960's...which would mean down in high 770's. --- All of which is very, very difficult for me. I'm a Skip Barber/930 personality, perhaps suited to option trading, although I often have lost a big pile by letting 'too much ride'. Landry, on the other hand is a Lexus driver. Landry's is more methodical and patient; catching the big moves and not trying to be a 'noise trader' - which is a fool's game at best.
I've got a long-held belief that the kind of car a person drives is a pretty good reflection of some aspect of a person's personality. A figure a manual-shifter (versus an automatic) might be a little more 'hands-on'. An economy car is thrifty, a luxury car, if owned outright means someone has a couple of dimes, but a lease immediately reveals someone who may be more flash than cash. I used to ask people when I was hiring them "What is your 'dream car'? And press them a bit for detail, realizing that humans on the inside, as Plato teaches in the Allegory of the Cave, project to the Outer World:
A little time reflecting on "What kind of car would you drive if you could drive anything?" and "What kind of House?" "What kind of lifestyle?" "How much exercise; what kind of sport?" "What would you read...?" All these things, when answered honestly, and meditated upon for a while can yield surprising results.
And, since the market can dead-cat-bounce from here and then resume its downward track, or it can go into another maddening series of triangle, we may, or may not, have time for such meditations.
But not too much time! The linguistics from HalfPastHuman.com are showing high immediacy values for "shortages" and when those start projecting out onto the Cave Wall in front of us, there's bound to be a big panic and hoarding start up.
We're in a curious time when we can either transform ourselves, or events are going to do it for us.
Balance of Trade Myth and reality time once again as the government has released the balance of trade report:
OK, no surprise there.
But Wait! Let's do a little quick math and see what the real story is on trade, reader?
December imports plus exports: $307.5 billion. So, imports (173.7 billion) is 56.49% of the trade pie.
Previous month (corrected) the total was $326.2 billion and imports (183.9 billion) was 56.38% of the trade pie. Hmmm...imports are still getting to be a bigger slice.....
So, while all the "happy-talk" makes the rounds, the facts speak for themselves: The proportion of import is UP, not down. MSM is going to miss this completely...which is why people don't trust 'em...with good cause, eh?
But in the inbox this morning was a little email out of the UK that gets me to wondering just how real the trade numbers are...in response to my notes on the Baltic Dry Index:
And then there's this note that "PIMCO says world economic crisis faces "Second Wave".
It just Keeps Getting Better Just when I thought everything that could be diddled with had been diddled and jiggered, this pops up:
Of course it's insane! What's your point? It's just another NY grandstanding socialist...I mean democorp...who wants to hijack state autonomy and consolidate everything under the aegis of those central planning geniuses at the federal level!
Why do you think New Hampshire and 9 other states are putting the federal government on notice that "If we didn't delegate you a specific power, you don't have it"?
Tanker Accident While we've been watching for 'maritime markers' to denote the onset of the next level of crisis/panic transformation slapping to begin, thanks to the navy ship grounding off Hawaii and now this tanker accident/chemical spill off the coast of Dubai, seems just about all the linguistic markers are in place. Fire up the popcorn for chock-a-block full headlines over the coming couple of weeks.
Terror Watch Up What's being billed as an unprecedented global terror alert from Interpol is making the rounds this morning. However, when I checked this morning, no chage at the Department of Homeland Security site, there was no change: They note that the threat in the airline industry is at orange.
Global Uprisings Department Latest data point is the 'global rebellion/soft revolution' meme may be the takeover of a factory in Ukraine by workers.
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Coping: Language of Leadership? A reader asks an interesting question:
A Fan of Marty Armstrong A reader sends this timing note:
I too am a fan of Armstrong's work. As I read it, he's such a dangerously accurate guy in his work that he ended up being locked up for seven years on contempt charges and after the government finally got a guilty plea out of him in 2007, gave him 5-years, so he will be out in either 2011 or 2012, not sure how the 'good behavior' thing works with the federal corrections system.
How Close to Meltdown? The $550 Billion Run on Banks A number of readers have sent in emails like this one:
OK, fine, but why couldn't the public have been told all this in September? And why do we have 14-banks that are on Tim Geithner's 'too big to fail' list? If we were having a bank run, why not just admit it? And that is the core of the public's problem: Officials in government, by not keeping the public 'in the loop' are guilty, as I see it, of misfeasance in office.
B-School Dart Game Interesting...
Ah...reason ya'll got close was you didn't have to jigger the numbers to fit current political realities...
FEMA Flood Maps Might want to keep an eye on those "We're from the government and we're here to help" people from FEMA who are redrawing flood plain maps. And example: "FEMA's flood zone maps cause headaches for Rochester-area residents." Oh boy...
Wash Them Veggies Reading up on an outbreak of rat lungworm in Hawaii oughta make you scrub your veggies extra carefully...
What Day is This? Sarah Palin's birthday! Finally, right-wing talk gabsters will have some fresh content...
How the World Really Works Ah...fine email here:
The financial media has a two major interests in being bullish. First, and foremost, they are paid for by what? Advertising! And that advertising is for what? Investment outfits. If they were to be balanced (interviewing too many folks like Dr. Doom Faber, me, Schif, et al, people would likely start living a much more sustainable lifestyle, spending time putting in gardens and saving money in ways that can't be seized through inflation instead of working themselves into an early grave by focusing on a 401(k) that's almost certain to be taxed at some point. So that's reason #1.
Reason number 2: If people were told the whole truth about how economics and big corporations work --- you know, things like corporate boards that live by "We out-source because we can get someone to do your job cheaper than you, so don't whine, we're international and we're here to make money and anything that gets in our way is just tough shit..." --- the normal humans of the world would not stand for it.
THAT gets to be dangerous stuff because the PowersThatBe at the top of the various heaps (like newspaper magnates, Council on Foreign whatevers and Trilateral this and thats - they don't want the apple cart upset quicker than they can clamor back to the top of the heap where they can live off the efforts of others. Why do the Obama 'change' artists have such outfits on their resumes and in their backgrounds, do you suppose?
By keeping people mesmerized, the MSM financial outfits are doing their part to preserve the current [powers] paradigm and for this they are richly rewarded. I have no doubt that some time between now and the close on Friday, each of the major financial channels will have someone or other on pimping the idea that "This is a great time to be buying...by historical stands, things are cheap! Buy 'em while you can..." Yada, yada, yada.
Oh sure, some time they will be right, as a broken clock is still right twice a day, but not until we first drop the Dow down to the 6,500 (or lower) level, if I have it dialed in right.
There, feel better now?
Ad Sales Faltering Interesting anecdote:
Special, indeed! --- Send snip and save items to george@ure.net --- end snip and save section ---
Tuesday February 10, 2009 The BIG Lie (of the day) Since you may have missed yesterday's class here at The [Quanzhen] Complete Reality School of Economics, here's a simple homework assignment based on how Obama has it both ways on pork in the new stimulus charade - this paper is due today:
Assume:
Explain:
Extra Credit:
Also of interest in the tax-ya'll bill is this one: Something called the "National Coordinator of Health Information Technology". That, comrade, is a fine sounding name now, ain't it? Hey! Wouldn't it be cool if the feds set up a national health database so insurance companies could find a reason to jack up all our rates even more? And then like the Republik of Massachusetts, we could all be fined for not buying insurance!!! Why, these boyz are learning from the auto lobby, aren't they?
Of course, the absurdity of the whole mess continues with various hearings where banksters are being asked to explain themselves, which begs the question about why the House and Senate aren't explaining themselves to the American people. But, we'll get to that (and the continuity of government sites) late this year or in 2010 when people start wondering in direct-action kinds of ways. Linguistically speaking. We ain't here to promote, only to report things before they go MSM.
Personal Responsibility Department This is rich - literally and figuratively (less back taxes): "Geithner says U.S. Financial System badly damaged, needs aid."
Answer me this: Who was the head of the New York Fed when this snowball was picking up speed and what did he do about it then? --- My friend The Bond Dude (TBD) called yesterday and asked "So what do you think the total losses are on the subprime mess to date?"
My guess $78.3 billion. He was floored that I was so close, since the actual number is only $75-billion...although that was through December.
So, as an ugly reminder, TBD correctly points this is really all just a multi-trillion dollar bailout and whitewash of the CDS disaster, which was enabled by what's-his-name Gramm's wife in Congress who shoved through the Enron swap-enabling legislation which got all this CDS horse puckey out from under the SEC's oversight, yet when Enron blew up, no one in Washington had the sense of my goats to ask "Gee, any collateral damage might come from all that wickedness?"
No? OK, we get the Second Depression booby prize, behind Door #2 then! Tadah! --- So, besides a complete collapse of pricing power for computing horsepower, we can also blame the second depression here on CDS delusions and marking things to fictional markets that never really worked.
Protectionism doesn't have anything to do with Depressions: The US was in a Depression already when Smoot-Hawley took effect in June 1930. It's just globalists hate the idea of having to make everything in the USA where they can be held accountable for taxes and a decent wage. Dangerous stuff, that.
You'd be rich too if you could hide all your income in Bermuda or Grand Cayman, the Channel Islands, the ABC Islands...and the list goes on.
Ever wonder why I was telling you the week before Global Economic Collapse started in October you should "Flee paper assets!" ??? The advice stands.
Newest advice: Stock up on things, hyperinflation/shortages will be here in 90-120 days....if that long. Before we get to the latest on the Baltic Dry Index, though....
Pitchforks and Torches Department Sure as the predictive linguistics work has been telling us for a year, we will see as a lead-in to the 'summer of hell' direct citizen action starting against the CEO's and others at the bankster class level who will be held personally accountable by the public because obviously, there's been enough juice and grease passed around Washington to keep anything meaningful from happening there while the 'old paradigm' is shored up with the bad (and expensive) joke of a 'stimulus bill' (which Bill Poole, formerly of the Fed says really oughta be aimed at this year and next and not to worry beyond that, but I digress, because that would make just too damn much sense to ever fly in Washington).
Where was I? Oh yeah, here you go: This morning's NY Post: "BANK ON CHANGE ACTIVIST PICKETS CEOS' HOMES FOR NEW MORTGAGES" Yessir, Post Reporter Paul Tharp has caught the leading edge of something that is really going to rise quickly now in public focus.
You might want to check out the Neighborhood Assistance Corporation of America web site for more details and to keep tabs on future actions.
Be a while before this goes mainstream - because MSM has no incentive to tell you what's really going on...
BDI Eye One of the reasons that shortages and hyperinflation are lurking just ahead is the much reported drop in the Baltic Dry Index, which at its worst, along about December, dropped 97%, which essentially meant that global trade had clocked up.
To be sure here lately, there has been a significant bounce in the index, interpreted by some optimistic reporters as "Signs of economic buoyancy on the high seas". True, while there have been 15-consecutive days of increasing BDI numbers, a look at the scope of the drop of the BDI here shows that the current 1,815 level is not even halfway up to the longer term average number, which I'd place at about 8,000 or so for the late 2007-2008 levels, just eyeballing other charts here.
Major Clue: Trade just dropped under the 2001-2002 first leg down of the Second Depression and while there's a bounce going on for the moment, there's also a good case to be made that international globalist trade business model is dead and markets are now spinning out of control while a new paradigm is established; a new equilibrium of consumption and marketing arrived at. Remember where you heard it.
Crimefornia? OK, so states come up with things like three-strikes laws and the US (thanks to making God-created plants 'illegal' and other examples of genius where state-sponsored substance abuse like the booze lobby gets threatened) zips up to the international top-o-the-heap when it comes to percentage of its own citizens incarcerated.
But then along comes a budget fiasco, so now we read how "Judges back a one-third reduction in state prison population in California."
Has it occurred to anyone (besides you and me) that the high crime rate might have something to do with the high broken family rate ands imported South American gangs, which in turn has a little something to do with the economic stove being turned up to boil under all of our asses while the State can't raise kids any better than a fish can be governor? --- And speaking of fishy things Sacdemento: The Governator has sued to get about 200,000 state workers to take two days off a month without pay. This after the workers pointed out that's above and beyond his scope of authority.
Ure's Simple Answer: Make those state criminals go to work monthly for two days in place of the state legislature! They won't be able to find work in this economy, anyway! They're already criminals...so no training needed. And, since they have to eat, if they can't find work they'll head right back for the easy money -- crime -- anyway. OMG we are oh so....well...you know....
China's Ugly 9/11 Lesson - Buried by the MSM! Still don't want to believe those controlled implosion pictures from the WTC demolition? Still buying the offishul WTC-7 just 'fell down perfectly'? Well, just another nail for those who don't get it: There was a huge 44-story skyscraper fire yesterday in China and you know what?
It didn't fall over.
Of course, I'm not the only one to notice this. Not only are reports of the CCTV skyscraper story hard to find in China, they are also missing from most US media, and certainly the paradigm controlling MSM for sure.
Of course not everyone is asleep. Over at Prison Planet the headline is "Fire Consumes WTC 7-Size Skyscraper, Building Does Not Collapse"
Well, of course not! There wasn't a billion of gold in the basement and none of those ultra-combustible naked short selling files that'll melt structural steel laying about. Wonder who had the insurance on this one?
--- snip and save section --- Coping: Stealth Gardening Peoplenomics following up note worth sharing:
Yessir, lots of good Google video on the topic to watch. Also worth reading up: Dave Jacke's Edible Forest Gardens work.
Caving On eBay You have to check this site out - a whole new way to look at what to do with a cave, should you ever be so lucky as to own a piece of land with a cave on it
IndependenceJournal Rework It's in the planning stages and yes, one of the seven or eight major sections of it will be a national recall center. Why? Because of emails like this one:
Childish Programmers Take Note A "Nine-year old writes iPhone code" informs a BBC article. Wonder if he could retool Vista?
Popular Delusions Department "Blue chip poll cuts forecast for second half 2009" but it still figures on growth. Wonder if the pollsters offered pee bottles to those completing the survey so they could be checked for....
George the Optimist Yeah, sure, maybe there are times that I sound a bit...well....like a downer and all, but I'm really NOT. In fact, I'm about the most happy guy in the world. Got a great wife, nice little ranch, no bills, happy clients, happy goats, and even a happy cat, now that Zeus's eye if healed.
No, if it's bummers to hear, find 12-minutes while the boss is
not around and click over a here and read this (and play the
video): "Dr. Doom &
Black Swan: You Ain’t Seen Nothin’ Yet". I'm
just gleeful by comparison.
Crash Watch Reader wants to know:
Oh, sure. In complex waves, you often get something called 'subdividing' which is where a pattern goes fractal, seemingly for a long spell, and then finally finishes what it was doing in Elliott wave terms. So, we are still in finishing mode, and all the news-noise is just adding to the extension, so no, I expect we will still have another nose-bleed down to 6,200, but it is just subdividing along in here so anything really big I wouldn't expect till a week from Friday when options get going, but I'm not even watching the short term counts since they mean nothing to me and eat up time.
Stories a bout things like liquor demand, high rise buildings that don't fall down, and the people that crashed the airplane insisting they are the right pilots for America...those are way more interesting... --- Send snip and save items to george@ure.net --- end snip and save section ---
Around the Ranch: Electrical Success You know what's cool about a small nagging electrical problem in a Porsche 930? (intermittent turn signal and parking light, left front)?
Everything is a wire that goes to a terminal strip. Find the one wire that has loosened up, reinsert, tightening up, and problem fixed.
The ceramic fuse that blew? Wrap a piece of chewing gum foil around the burned out fuse, reinsert, and off you go! Proper replacement will be here Thursday.
I LOVE a car that I can work on myself. Ever try to find a problem in one of those molded connectors? Chewing gum wrapper trick is much less easy on spade-type fuses. No thanks! Give me my digital meter and a strip of snap-in fuses and screw-on wiring any time.
Monday February 9, 2009 Your $9.7 Trillion and Quanzhen Economics "The Quanzhen (Chinese: 全真; pinyin: quán zhēn; literally: "Complete Perfection") School, commonly called Complete Reality in English, is a major sect of Taoism that originated in Northern China." Not to anger 1.3-billion Chinese, but I don't think they'll mind that I've hung out a shingle here as the "Complete Reality School of Economics"
Granted, there's aren't too many followers - yet - although I'm sure that'll come as we continue slogging our way deeper and deeper into the Second Depression. And, we'll do that because the current crop of formulaic trance-masters and economystics doesn't seem to realize that when it comes to excessive leverage and debt being unwound in an excruciatingly painful way, you can run, but you can hide. The stimulus bill is part of the running scene. The you can't hide part is when it doesn't work later this year.
Which is why the Big Story this morning is about president O and the entourage going to Elkhart Indiana; the trip headlined as "Obama to visit job-starved Elkhart, Indiana."
With the decline in the Refi Frenzy here in the Checkbook Republic, things in Elkhart have gone from passably so-so to OMG terrible. That's what happens when unemployment leaps from 4.7% a year ago to somewhere north of 15.3% in the latest statistical reports. --- There are two points to make about the trip and its significance to our Complete Reality School of Economics.
The first is that the demand for RV's has been flattened. First by high gasoline and diesel prices in early 2008, and since then despite the decline in gas prices, the lack of credit to go out and buy a new Class A. What was once a simple matter of flipping another refi on the family home (in order to be able to write off all that delicious interest) has become a hard-to-pull-off sleight of hand.
The RV business is also facing a couple of very obvious marketing problems. First is that the Baby Boomers (like me) are at the point in life where if they don't buy a coach now, they may never get around to it. From here, the Baby Boom demographic bubble begins to run out of discretionary income for things like the "motorhome trip around America to see the sights..." Ain't happening when half the value of many 401(k)'s has been erased in the last six months. So point #1is what? Demographics.
The second thing is market saturation. I hit eBay this morning and came up with about 6,667 listings for RV's of one stripe other another, and even by the time you back out miscategorized items like holding tank heaters and what-have-you, I'm guessing the number of RV's on eBay is around 5,000 -- or more. Say, don'tcha think that's a fair amount of product to be sitting around for sale? And that's before I called any of the local banks to see if they had some repo's...
Then there was the local Craigslist to study: Here's a 32-footer which claims everything works and you can buy it for $3,800. OK, it's a 1976 model....so not a lot of pose-factor when you pull into a park. But, on the other hand, for $4-grand or $100-grand new...lemme see.....duh! Too much dough for you? How about a small 1972 unit for...$1,500!
Here at the Complete Reality School, where a little hard work and elbow grease is always pays dividends, I figure in RV's (as in sailboats, where I have oceans of experience) that a good coat of wax, several jugs of Windex, and a trip to the auto parts store and fresh flooring plus a little fancy woodworking from the shop to add some customized touches and I can get exactly what I want with bragging rights to boot.
"Not fair! Those new motorhomes have inverters and LCD TV's!"
Yeah, yeah, whatever. TigetDirect for a 47" LCD for $750, and a 1,000 watt inverter/charger for $355 on eBay and I'm into a motorhome for what? Wanna see me put a dishwasher in? New bed? Why sure.... heck I'll throw in new brakes all around while I'm tinkering...
For less than $5,000 I can end up with an incredible well-appointed customized touring and bug-out vehicle, LCD, dishwasher, inverter, dishwasher and maybe enough to throw a good coat of high polyurethane content paint on the outside; just one more use for that small air compressor in the shop, huh?
Biggest choice: Do I want the interior customized woodwork done in walnut or cherry? Blonde? White oak? Gonna have to check with management on that stuff. --- See what Elkhart is up against? Point 2: Market saturation and competitive alternatives.
Actually, my approach would be a lot of fun to do since instead of a single act of check-writing, I would be able to spread the project out over some number of months. What could be more fun that rebuilding a motor home with your spouse? Going through dreaming/visioning/building/trimming and all that? Plus, instead of plopping your lazy-ass down in the recliner after a hard day of work, you could be following one of the Complete Reality School of Economics axioms:
So it's cool and all that Obama is going to Elkhart today, but unless he buys a large number of RV's for the White House staff, he's not going to do much other than focus people on the issue for a few hours while the vote on the pork & stimulus bill comes along.
Want me to build in some cool hidden compartments or any other ultra-features in my custom RV?
Might want to have a few coins or bars of something with you when the $9.7 trillion involved in this Bailout Madness comes home to roost as hyperinflation later on this year. That's enough dough to pay off 90% of ALL home mortgages in the country. Wowzer.... --- Underlying it all, the hardest sales question in Elkhart:
"Was there someplace in particular you wanted to go see during the global economic collapse?"
Note to graphics department: Put that caption on man and woman doing a deal in RV dealership and have it for us Friday morning.... --- Wild-eyed George's Complete Reality School of Economics claims no involvement in the Chinese dragon dancers rioting. 50 injured, couple of cop cars smashed. Not our style. The pen is mightier than the dragon...
A What? Hats off to Governor Mark Sanford for calling the economy what it is:
Back in the newsroom days, we'd be calling this a 'truth leak'.
Swiss Cheeses Report "Swiss banks to announce massive losses: report". Well, well, let's be franc about it...LOL (rim shot).
Ozferno The death toll is quickly heading for 150 and the burned out homes in Australia's wildfires are coming up on 1,000. Meantime, seems 'forest fire jihad' is being promoted by some Islamic extremists...speaking of which... --- Islamic militants have turned loose video of a beheading of a Polish engineer.
Ships Ahoy Israel's defense minister says more Iranian ships are headed for Gaza. --- With the US Navy guided missile cruiser still aground off Hawaii (if at first you don't succeed there's always Tuesday...), seems all our linguistics have been met for whatever the Obama crisis/test is to come along shortly.
World Nuts You saw this one? 16 illegals are suing an Arizona rancher who held them at gunpoint to turn them in to Border Patrol?
--- snip and save section --- Coping: High Times I thought it was really cool when the Air Fones went into commercial service - enabled me to get a lot more done when traveling. Oh, sure, not cheap, but very much worth having around.
On my recent trip up to Denver, I didn't bring my laptop, but seems that airline wi-fi is coming. Why the headline writers aren't already calling it sky-fi is beyond me. But, wi-fi in planes is almost here, as Delta and American try it out.
Of course, that brings up issues like YouTube videos being up too loud, and what was once the sanctity of life at 35,000 feet is going away.
On the other hand, once I can get sky-fi, does that mean if I call someone on Skype that would be SKYping them or would that be sky-skyping?
See? These are the kinds of important linguistics issues that marketing departments are supposed to have worked out for us already so that idiots (consultants, same thing) like me don't waste your productive waking hours trying to work out things that should already be branded and burned in to the press releases on this stuff. And what about warflying? Is that what we're going to call the aeronautical version of wardriving?
Hello? Anyone awake in marketing yet?
And we wonder why the economy sucks, huh?
I don't Need Another One, But... Remember my theory that if you buy a Porsche at the right point in the economic cycle, you can sometimes drive it for a number of years and sell it for more than you paid for it? Which is why back in early January, I bought a 1986 Porsche Carrera turbo lookalike. Arguably it's one of the best cars ever built from a driver's standpoint. That's if you enjoy the sound of tires eating road, the whine of Porsche's gearbox coming up through the gears and so on. Porsche air coolers are not known for their icy A/C.
I thought I'd mention, in passing that the true turbo version of the same car can occasionally be had and the folks I bought my non-turbo from up in Denver have the turbo twin of mine for sale. The e-Bay listing is here. No, I don't get a commission, this is just a definitive sports car.
In an age where money is depreciating faster than interest accrues, buying a toy-car may seem irresponsible - and maybe it is. As one reader asked recently "Any particular reason you need to zip from 0 to 60 in 5.2 seconds (3.9 for the turbo)?" First thing out of my mouth is "Safer passing..." But, I'm sure you're awake enough not to buy that one. But for someone - who is about to turn 60 - such a car is a work of art. Safe - they stop so fast you have to keep your mouth shut while braking to keep all your teeth in your mouth; squinting recommended to keep contacts centered in in 1G+ corners, amazing slalom times (with a nod to The Bond Dude's GMC Typhoon as another worthy long-term 'keeper').
While its true that some of the 'rice burners' (with nitrous and all that) may be a tiny bit faster under this condition, or that, the mid 1980's air coolers rank pretty well on the list of collectable sports cars (the Carrera non-turbo is #7 for the 1980's top-10 list) --- I'd never try to talk you out of buying a brand new, ultra dependable, crash-tested, ultra-low emissions and American-made car as an everyday driver. And, I'd be remiss if I didn't tell you that there's enough 'bad stuff' out on the predictive linguistics event horizon that spending a dime on anything other that survival goods may be questionable by mid 2012. May not be much gas around once the shortages of everything kick in through the year ahead.
So the car is an enjoyable speculation. The core question is whether there's something else which has more promise of returning something of value in the future, or whether it will decline rapidly, as I expect paper assets of almost every stripe will? Anyway, wanted to pass it on.
Look Into My Eyes... "Televisions to be fitted in contact lenses within ten years" says a report out of the UK. --- This is why George is all fouled up: Bluetooth goes in your ear, so what are we going to call this stuff that goes in your eyes? Something Bluefinger maybe? Course that web name is already taken...OMG is ANYBODY working in marketing anymore? What about Bluefoot, then? Taken!!! WTF???!!!!
Hey...how about Redeye? Like when you stick your finger in your...Taken too?
"Hello, marketing? Marketing? Anyone there????? I think we can brand off "Eyefinger...get it? Whatdaya think??? No, it's not showing as registered yet..." (Pass me that bottle of el Don, wouldja? I got a great one for 'em on rechargeable contacts... Eyenergizer I call it....) --- Send snip and save items to george@ure.net --- end snip and save section ---
Before the chart, a little background: Once upon a time, a long while ago, I observed during my quest for 'truth' in economics, that the PowersThatBe, the talking heads on the teeve, and the other information sources that actively engage in the programming of humans not to think, had conveniently swept several trillions of dollars that disappeared in the Internet Bubble's bursting (since spring 2000) under the rug. Surely, it wasn't unnoticed by the thousands of people who called brokers and said "Where is my money?" "Gone, but hang in there as you're a long term investor!" was about all they heard back.
So one of our charts for Peoplenomics subscribers oughta be widely circulated - it shows that if you line up the peak of the Dow in January 2000 with the peak in early September of 1929, we're on a very very close replay track. Much closer than even the chart shows if you were to back out inflation, and put in the effects of 1929 deflation, but that'd be real work, and I'm sort of lazy if the truth be told.
No, it's not a perfect replay of 1929, but history doesn't repeat exactly, it only rhymes. So think of this as the rhymes and the crimes chart:
"George, that's only a coincidence!" your monkey-mind will protest.
Why sure it is...you bet. A 9½ year long coincidence...yessir....just a coincidence, I'm sure...
Write when you get rich,
George Ure, The People's Economist |
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is that barter is not a 'single tool that solves all' - and
it's only one of numerous ways to get those things we all
need to hold life together as a tolerable event sequence. So
we begin this week by stepping back to the key action verb of life:
"getting".
